#BTC市场分析 October's crash—what I saw most clearly wasn't the price itself, but what the on-chain data was telling us. Now that the data is laid out, long-term holders are executing an epic distribution. That's a signal—someone's taking profits, someone's cutting losses, and someone's just giving up.
2.536 million BTC stacked between $80k-$90k, a figure that increased by 1.874 million compared to October. It looks like bottom support, but I need to ask myself a question: are these holdings locked in by true long-term believers in value, or are they forced positions held by underwater traders? The batch with costs at $60k-$70k did the heaviest selling—mostly positions accumulated before the US election. When profits retrace from their peak, how intense does the urge to cash out become?
Here's the critical part—between $70k-$80k, there's only 190,000 BTC. That's the real gap zone. What does that mean? Once it drops to that level, the market lacks absorption capacity, which could actually become a new liquidity entry point. But before that happens, I'm seeing a tug-of-war between underwater positions above and profitable positions below.
This major shift in chip structure over the past two months—put simply—the old guard is leaving, and the cost basis is being rebuilt. What I learned from this downturn is: don't get spooked by distribution data, and don't get blinded by the narrative around support zones. The real point is seeing clearly who's selling, why they're selling, and where the true bottom actually is—and that's usually not where the data looks pretty. It's where most people are afraid.
#BTC市场分析 October's crash—what I saw most clearly wasn't the price itself, but what the on-chain data was telling us. Now that the data is laid out, long-term holders are executing an epic distribution. That's a signal—someone's taking profits, someone's cutting losses, and someone's just giving up.
2.536 million BTC stacked between $80k-$90k, a figure that increased by 1.874 million compared to October. It looks like bottom support, but I need to ask myself a question: are these holdings locked in by true long-term believers in value, or are they forced positions held by underwater traders? The batch with costs at $60k-$70k did the heaviest selling—mostly positions accumulated before the US election. When profits retrace from their peak, how intense does the urge to cash out become?
Here's the critical part—between $70k-$80k, there's only 190,000 BTC. That's the real gap zone. What does that mean? Once it drops to that level, the market lacks absorption capacity, which could actually become a new liquidity entry point. But before that happens, I'm seeing a tug-of-war between underwater positions above and profitable positions below.
This major shift in chip structure over the past two months—put simply—the old guard is leaving, and the cost basis is being rebuilt. What I learned from this downturn is: don't get spooked by distribution data, and don't get blinded by the narrative around support zones. The real point is seeing clearly who's selling, why they're selling, and where the true bottom actually is—and that's usually not where the data looks pretty. It's where most people are afraid.