- US stocks: Entering euphoric mode, S&P 500 up 0.64%, Nasdaq up nearly 1% (interestingly, AI is down while traditional sectors are up)
- Gold: Single-day gain nearly 3%, logically should decline if geopolitical tensions ease
- US Treasury bonds: 10-year yield pulled back to 4.16%, 2-year also declining but declining too slowly, indicating everyone is still watching the risk situation
Key focus on BTC
- Subtle changes in correlation: Over the past month, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has actually been declining
- BTC is switching from "risk asset" to "liquidity hedge asset"
- On-chain data shows significant exhaustion of selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) near $92k
Counterintuitive point: 9w BTC is more cost-effective than 8.5w BTC
Right now everyone is front-running Friday's non-farm payroll data, everyone should be racing ahead, let's wait and see
BTC finally decoupling from US stocks
- US stocks: Entering euphoric mode, S&P 500 up 0.64%, Nasdaq up nearly 1% (interestingly, AI is down while traditional sectors are up)
- Gold: Single-day gain nearly 3%, logically should decline if geopolitical tensions ease
- US Treasury bonds: 10-year yield pulled back to 4.16%, 2-year also declining but declining too slowly, indicating everyone is still watching the risk situation
Key focus on BTC
- Subtle changes in correlation: Over the past month, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has actually been declining
- BTC is switching from "risk asset" to "liquidity hedge asset"
- On-chain data shows significant exhaustion of selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) near $92k
Counterintuitive point: 9w BTC is more cost-effective than 8.5w BTC
Right now everyone is front-running Friday's non-farm payroll data, everyone should be racing ahead, let's wait and see