Institution: US December non-farm employment growth is expected to be weak, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.5%

On January 9th, institutional analysis pointed out that due to companies being cautious about hiring because of import tariffs and increased artificial intelligence investments, US job growth in December may slow down. However, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5%, which could support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The non-farm payroll report released tonight is expected to show that the US labor market remains in a “no hiring, no firing” mode, as described by economists and policymakers. This will also confirm that the US economy is in a phase of jobless expansion. In the third quarter of last year, economic growth and worker productivity surged significantly, partly due to a spike in AI spending. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, stated: “It’s not entirely weak demand because the economy doesn’t seem to be performing badly, but companies are very cautious about hiring new employees. This may be related to cost control efforts, perhaps due to tariff pressures, or it could be because many companies believe that AI-driven automation will lead to productivity improvements.” (Jin10)