Volatility in Bitcoin has Fallen to the Lowest Level! Silence Before the Storm? Here are the Latest Data

2025-03-18 14:14:07

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According to a report published by the blockchain options platform Derive, volatility is near monthly lows and Bitcoin (BTC) may experience sharp price fluctuations soon.

Derive Warning: Bitcoin Volatility Getting Ready to Bounce Back

BTC has been consolidating between $80,000 and $85,000 since a sharp drop from $100,000, the all-time high, on March 12th.

The decline was attributed to President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and no further purchases for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Despite the current low volatility period, Derive’s founder Nick Forster suggests that this may be a temporary lull before a significant price movement.

The weekly at-the-money volatility of BTC dropped to around 49%, approaching the lowest level of 45% monthly. Meanwhile, realized volatility dropped from 91% to 54%.

What Could Trigger the Next Move?

Forster emphasized that volatility does not predict price direction, meaning BTC could see significant swings up or down. Factors that could reignite this volatility include the following:

Geopolitical uncertainties such as developments in Ukraine
Regulatory changes under the Trump administration
The policy decision that the Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday

While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, traders are currently pricing in two to three rate cuts within this year. A more dovish stance than expected could provide fuel for Bitcoin bulls, while ongoing stock market declines could push prices lower.

Market Impact of Derivatives

Derive, a blockchain-based options platform supported by artificial intelligence, saw significant activity with approximately $100 million locked total value (TVL) and $15 billion cumulative trading volume.

Considering the deep market information, traders are closely watching whether the predicted volatility resurgence will carry BTC to new highs or trigger another sale.

BTC-1.32%

DRV-0.72%

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