#BTCPullback
XRP Shows Hope for a 17% Breakout but 1.5 Billion Tokens Become an Obstacle
The XRP price has given several breakout signals at once, but there is a wall of 1.5 billion tokens at the break-even level blocking the 17% rally target.
The cup and handle pattern has just broken out, and standard bullish divergence has triggered a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, a potential bullish crossover may be forming. Although the technical setup looks promising, on-chain data shows a different picture.
Cup and Handle Breakout Confirmed by Bullish Divergence
XRP was moving within a cup and handle pattern from March to early May. The ‘cup’ formed from March 23 to April 17, while the ‘handle’ consolidated from April 17 to May 2. After that, the handle breakout above the descending channel occurred on May 2.
This initial breakout had a clear trigger.
Specifically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, showed a positive setup on the daily chart. Between February 7 and April 29, XRP’s price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low. This pattern is a standard bullish divergence, often signaling a trend reversal at the end of a downtrend. This divergence appeared on April 29, and the cup and handle breakout happened three trading sessions later on May 2. As of April 29, XRP’s price had already risen more than 6%.
In addition to divergence, the technical setup has other support. Currently, XRP is trading above the exponential moving average (EMA) 20—an indicator that emphasizes recent price action to measure short-term momentum—at US$1.400 and the 50-day EMA at US$1.408. Importantly, these two lines are getting closer. If a bullish cross occurs with the 20-day EMA crossing above the 50-day EMA, it would confirm a shift in short-term momentum.
In comparison, the last time XRP broke above the 20-day EMA, on April 13, this movement triggered an 11.43% rally that pushed the price above the 50-day EMA as well. The current setup is similar, with a confirmed breakout and EMA crossover approaching.
From a technical perspective, the reasons for a breakout are in place. However, on-chain data paints a different picture.
However, 1.5 billion XRP at the break-even level becomes an obstacle
The biggest test for this breakout lies in two complementary on-chain signals.
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First, exchange flow data has changed. XRP’s Exchange Net Position Change has increased since yesterday. This metric tracks the net flow of XRP into and out of exchange wallets, with positive numbers indicating tokens moving into exchanges, usually for sale. Specifically, this number rose from around 37 million XRP on May 4 to about 46 million XRP on May 5. As a result, this acceleration indicates selling pressure is starting to appear amid the price strength.
Second, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows where these sales are most concentrated. Data from Glassnode indicates a cluster of 1.57 billion XRP accumulated between US$1.41 and US$1.42. With XRP’s current price at US$1.43, this cluster is slightly below the spot price. Importantly, holders who bought in this cluster are near break-even, and the break-even group has historically been the largest source of supply when prices rise.
Beyond this lower cluster, the next important cost basis cluster is between US$1.47 and US$1.48, where 414 million XRP are accumulated. If XRP’s price breaks through the lower cluster without significant selling, the next test is at this upper cluster. Therefore, both clusters need to be absorbed for the breakout to continue smoothly.
This setup presents two possibilities. If holders at US$1.41–$1.42 choose to break even and exit, the handle breakout will lose strength. Conversely, if they hold, the path to the next major resistance opens.
XRP Price Levels That Will Determine the Next Direction
XRP is trading at US$1.430, with the nearest resistance zone at US$1.435, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This area is the first obstacle to clear to confirm the breakout.
First, a daily close above US$1.435 will confirm that the breakout is strong enough to surpass the lowest cost basis cluster and open the door to US$1.462 (Fibonacci 0.5) and US$1.490 (Fibonacci 0.618). After that, a clean break above US$1.490 will surpass the second cost basis cluster around US$1.47–$1.48 and pave the way toward US$1.529 (Fibonacci 0.786) and the floating neckline at US$1.551.
Above the neckline, a daily close above US$1.551 activates the measured move target from the cup and handle pattern. This pattern estimates a potential increase of about 17% toward US$1.811. The path between US$1.551 and US$1.811 passes through Fibonacci 1.0 at US$1.579 and Fibonacci extension 1.618 at US$1.723.
On the other hand, support levels are relatively close. Holding the price at US$1.401, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, will keep the cup and handle structure intact. But if the price breaks below US$1.401, XRP could head toward US$1.345 as the next major support. Below US$1.345, the path opens toward US$1.277 as a long-term floor. If it breaks below US$1.277, the cup and handle pattern will be invalidated entirely.
Ultimately, these level calculations are binary. A confirmed close above US$1.551 will open the possibility of rising to US$1.81. A close below US$1.278 will invalidate the breakout setup.