Recently, I've seen people using the supply curve of stablecoins to force-fit ETF inflows and outflows. Frankly, the correlation is pretty easy to see, but don’t mistake it for causation. When off-chain funds come in, they don’t necessarily turn into stablecoins first; they might just move around on the broker side first. The on-chain activity is just the final destination. When the time difference widens, the chart can deceive you.

What I personally pay more attention to as a “signal” is: whether the path taken during congestion for the same amount has shortened, whether the slippage suddenly becomes willing to pay (like someone in a hurry to execute), and whether the signs of front-running or sandwich attacks have become more pronounced. As for the recent daily chatter about staking unlocks, token unlock schedules, and the anxiety over selling pressure... Anyway, I’m more worried about taking a hit passively when liquidity is thin; the unlock day just amplifies the collective sentiment. That’s all for now, I’ll watch and see gradually.