# Date: March 15, 2026

## Near-Term Impact

1）
· Event: U.S. President announces strikes on Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export hub, and warns of potential continued airstrikes on related targets.
· Impact: Iran's crude oil export capacity under threat → global crude oil supply risk rises, oil prices and energy stocks gain risk premium.
· Focus: Extent of damage to Iran's petroleum export facilities and whether actual export volumes are affected.

2）
· Event: U.S. calls on China, UK, Japan, South Korea, France and other nations to deploy warships to protect maritime shipping at Strait of Hormuz.
· Impact: International military escort mechanism may form → if implemented, will alleviate shipping risk and suppress oil price volatility.
· Focus: Whether any countries formally announce participation in escort operations.

3）
· Event: Iran states Strait of Hormuz is closed only to U.S. and Israeli vessels, with access open to other countries.
· Impact: Energy transport experiences "selective navigation" → oil price volatility increases in short term but no complete supply disruption.
· Focus: Actual number of transiting tankers and changes in insurance rate premiums.

4）
· Event: Iran warns that if its energy facilities continue to be attacked, it will strike Middle East enterprises or facilities affiliated with the U.S.
· Impact: Energy and infrastructure enterprises face geopolitical risk → oil & gas, shipping, and port assets face rising risk premiums.
· Focus: Whether retaliatory actions target energy enterprises or ports.

5）
· Event: Indian airlines announce fuel surcharge increases due to Middle East conflict, airline operating costs rise rapidly.
· Impact: Energy prices transmit to transportation industry → airline stock profit expectations under pressure.
· Focus: Whether global airlines universally increase fuel surcharges.

6）
· Event: Following Middle East escalation news, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks' uptrend interrupted abruptly, oil prices rebound.
· Impact: Risk assets highly sensitive to war news → capital flows shift toward energy and safe-haven assets in short term.
· Focus: Changes in global stock index futures, VIX, and capital flows.

## Long-Term Impact

7）
· Event: Both U.S. and Iran state no ceasefire plans currently, conflict may evolve into prolonged war of attrition.
· Impact: Extended war cycle → energy price levels and global inflation expectations may rise sustainably.
· Focus: Whether multilateral mediation or ceasefire negotiations emerge.

8）
· Event: Research institutions warn Strait of Hormuz is effectively in **"semi-blockade status."**
· Impact: Global energy transport critical corridor destabilized → oil & gas and shipping markets enter high volatility cycle.
· Focus: Changes in daily tanker throughput via the Strait.

9）
· Event: Since war outbreak, at least 16 tankers or cargo ships attacked in Gulf and near Strait of Hormuz.
· Impact: Shipping insurance costs skyrocket → global trade and energy transport costs rise.
· Focus: War insurance rates and shipping companies' route adjustments.

10）
· Event: Institutions warn that under extreme scenarios of prolonged Strait of Hormuz conflict, oil prices could surge to $150–200 per barrel.
· Impact: Global stagflation risk rises → energy stocks and resource-country assets benefit, consumer and growth stocks pressured.
· Focus: Major oil-producing nations' production increase capacity and strategic petroleum reserve release scale.