Nick Szabo and the Bitcoin question: Is he the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto?

The upcoming HBO documentary, scheduled to air on October 8th, has reignited an old debate: Who is the real Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin? While such reveal announcements can often be marketing tactics, the crypto community’s focus is once again on a name that has been at the center of this discussion for years – Nick Szabo. The American cryptographer, legal scholar, and computer scientist is considered by many as the most likely candidate for the true identity behind the pseudonym.

Two Decades of Blockchain Innovation: From Smart Contracts to Bit Gold

Nick Szabo has left his mark on the digital revolution long before Bitcoin. After studying computer science at the University of Washington (1989) and earning a law degree from George Washington University Law School, he developed concepts that would form the foundation of the entire blockchain industry. In 1994, Szabo coined the term “Smart Contracts” – a revolutionary concept aimed at bringing legal certainty through code into the digital world. This idea remains the basis for thousands of decentralized applications today.

But it was in 1998 that Szabo paid an even more striking tribute to his visionary thinking: the concept of Bit Gold. This theoretical digital currency system was remarkably similar in nature to Bitcoin – fully digital, without intermediaries, and with an innovative solution to the double-spending problem using proof-of-work mechanisms. Unlike later Bitcoin implementations, Bit Gold relied on a quorum of addresses rather than computational power for consensus, an approach that proved vulnerable to Sybil attacks. Szabo himself described his motivation for this theoretical currency aptly: “A long time ago, I came up with the idea of Bit Gold. The central problem is that the value of our money currently depends on trust in a third party. The numerous inflationary and hyperinflationary crises of the 20th century show that this is not a satisfactory state.”

The conceptual parallels between Bit Gold and Bitcoin, released ten years later, are unmistakable. Experts generally regard Bit Gold as one of the most significant precursors to Satoshi Nakamoto’s breakthrough.

The Evidence: Several Clues Point to Nick Szabo

Since Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity remains a mystery, speculation has placed Szabo at the top of the list of candidates. This is supported by several converging factors. The first is obvious: Bit Gold is a nearly direct predecessor, demonstrating that Szabo not only anticipated the conceptual basis for Bitcoin but also possessed the technical understanding to implement it. If he had a decade to improve upon Bit Gold’s weaknesses, why wouldn’t he have done exactly that?

The second factor is Szabo’s extensive expertise in blockchain and cryptocurrencies, clearly proving his technical skills and intellectual contribution to the field. There is little doubt that Nick Szabo has the necessary technical competence to be at least a serious candidate for Satoshi.

A third intriguing clue lies in linguistic analysis. Author Dominic Frisby argues in his work “Bitcoin: The Future of Money?” that Nick Szabo and Satoshi Nakamoto share a remarkably similar writing style. Additionally, both cite the economic theory of Carl Menger – a detail that underscores their similarity. Szabo is known for his strict stance on privacy, a conviction that apparently Satoshi Nakamoto also shared. This accumulation of parallels – from technical abilities to ideological orientation and linguistic quirks – forms a coherent overall picture.

The one who reveals the mystery is not: The paradox of the Satoshi puzzle

A fourth and possibly most telling element is Szabo’s consistent refusal to admit to being Satoshi Nakamoto. This clearly sets him apart from those who have claimed the Bitcoin creator’s crown. Historically, a clear pattern emerges: anyone claiming to be Satoshi is highly unlikely to be him. Those who keep the secret probably do so out of deep conviction.

Recent attention was fueled by the HBO documentary, which sparked lively speculation on prediction platforms like Polymarket. There, Nick Szabo has gained a significant lead in betting odds – his chances are in the double-digit percentage range, while all other candidates are in the single digits. This reflects Szabo’s dominant position in discussions about Satoshi’s true identity.

Whether the HBO documentary will actually reveal the truth or merely deepen the mystery remains to be seen. One thing is certain: Nick Szabo will continue to play a central role in this debate – not least because all the evidence points to him as the most competent and logical candidate.