Polymarket Insider Bets Yield Massive Profits Amid Maduro Arrest

2026-01-04 11:51:10

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Three new Polymarket wallets profited $630K betting on Maduro, showing concentrated trades can yield massive gains quickly.
Sweetcheeks and DidiTrading tracked unusual wallet activity, proving automated monitoring can reveal insider signals.
Timely exits and niche bets created outsized returns, emphasizing the need for transparency in prediction markets.

A sudden surge in Polymarket activity has raised serious questions about insider trading after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest. Three newly created wallets placed large bets predicting Maduro would be out of office, netting a combined $630,484.

According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, these accounts had no prior history of betting, and all activity focused exclusively on Venezuelan political outcomes.The largest bet came from wallet 0x31a5, which invested $34,000 and walked away with $409,900.

Another wallet, 0xa72D, turned $5,800 into $75,000, while SBet365 invested $25,000 and earned $145,600. Lookonchain noted that all three wallets were pre-funded days in advance, then executed trades hours before Maduro’s arrest. Charts reveal a long flat line in profits followed by sharp jumps, confirming gains were realized almost instantly when markets resolved.

How Insiders Exploited Timing

These wallets relied on highly concentrated positions rather than frequent trades. One wallet, active since December 2025, placed just four predictions, with its largest success coming from the “Maduro out by January 31, 2026” market.

The trader invested roughly $32,500 and collected over $436,000, marking a return above 1,200%. Smaller bets included U.S. military action scenarios, all winning positions. Transaction histories show funds moved in over several days, followed by large inflows just before market resolution.

Similarly, wallet 0xa72D placed a single bet on the same Maduro outcome. The $5,800 investment returned over $80,000. Both cases demonstrate how timely exits and niche market focus created outsized gains with modest capital.

Community Insights and Tools

Several Polymarket users highlighted automated tracking of insider activity. Sweetcheeks shared, “I built a vibe-coded bot to track Domino’s pizza orders near the Pentagon. The alert helped me buy before the market reacted.”

Meanwhile, DidiTrading noted that monitoring unusual behavior, such as fresh wallets and abnormal bet sizing, can reveal high-probability trades before outcomes materialize. With Polymarket’s open API, anyone can develop similar monitoring tools

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