Диверсификация данных о занятости и геополитическое обострение цен на нефть — где точка перелома ликвидности на рынке криптовалют?

【BlockBeats】 Recently, the US employment data released showed an interesting contrast. In December, ADP employment rebounded to 41,000, which sounds quite good, indicating that enterprises are still hiring; but turning to look at JOLTS job openings data and it faltered—the actual figure of 7.146 million continued to decline, meaning that although enterprises are still hiring, actual demand has already started cooling. This situation where the current period looks decent but prospects are less optimistic makes the Fed’s decision-making more complex.

The geopolitical situation on this side is also unsettled. The US oil embargo on Venezuela has clearly escalated—directly seizing two tankers carrying Venezuelan crude oil on the high seas, with one even escorted by the Russian Navy. This is not a minor move, but a real crackdown on Venezuela’s “shadow fleet,” while also testing where the bottom line lies between Russia and the US regarding sanctions and freedom of navigation.

For financial markets, this becomes a “tug-of-war” situation. Strong ADP data supports the dollar and interest rate expectations in the short term, but the decline in JOLTS coupled with escalating energy geopolitical risks means the uncertainty in the overall macro environment hasn’t dissipated. Crude oil supply risks have resurfaced, and inflation expectations and risk-aversion sentiment may start to ferment together.

For the crypto market, the key actually isn’t whether one data point looks good or bad, but whether liquidity expectations will experience a new inflection. Employment data divergence and energy geopolitical escalation working simultaneously could keep short-term pricing at current levels, but medium-term risks of demand cooling and supply shocks occurring synchronously need to be watched carefully.