Bitunix аналитик: Милан заявил, что в 2026 году возможен значительный снижение ставок более чем на 100 базисных пунктов, а данные по занятости станут ключевым фактором в политике

CoinWorld News - On January 7, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Mikan pointed out that the current interest rate policy is “clearly restrictive” and is forming substantial drag on the economy, directly stating that 2026 has sufficient reason for rate cuts “far exceeding 100 basis points.” This statement is clearly dovish, forming a stark contrast with the views of some officials who believe the policy has approached neutrality, and also highlights that divergences within the Federal Reserve regarding economic outlook and policy stance continue to widen. From a macro perspective, whether monetary policy is overly tight ultimately depends on the actual performance of the labor market. This week the U.S. will intensively release ADP, JOLTS, initial jobless claims, and non-farm employment reports. Multiple “employment checkup” data will become key evidence for judging whether the economy has the capacity to withstand high interest rates. If employment maintains resilience, the justification for the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in the near term will increase; conversely, if data weakens again, the dovish loose policy stance represented by Mikan may rapidly amplify. From the crypto market perspective, this divergence itself constitutes an important forward-looking signal. Uncertainty in the interest rate path means liquidity expectations will remain highly sensitive to data changes, and short-term volatility may amplify; however, if subsequent employment and inflation data jointly point to expanded policy shift space, the market will re-evaluate the medium and long-term liquidity environment, providing structural support for assets with “monetary attributes” like Bitcoin. Bitunix Analyst: This is not merely a matter of individual official commentary, but rather policy divergence intersecting with key data. The direction of employment data will determine whether the market heads toward “interest rate pause” or “advance trading deeper easing,” while the core observation focus of the crypto market remains whether liquidity expectations experience substantial turning points.