XRP/BTC месячный облачный график впервые за 8 лет близко подходит к пробою, сможет ли подтвердить разворот после капитулянтского распродажа?

XRP recently came under pressure in the spot market, briefly breaking below the key support of $2.32 to $2.21, but trading volume at the lows expanded significantly to 256.3 million coins (140%+ above average), displaying typical “capitulation selling” characteristics. More notably, the technical signals on the long-term chart deserve attention: XRP/BTC monthly Ichimoku cloud is approaching its first valid breakthrough since 2018. This suggests that beyond short-term price volatility, the market may see improved relative strength over the medium to long term.

Short-term Price: Key Window for Bottom Confirmation

Signs of stabilization after capitulation selling

XRP has shown strong demand absorption around $2.21. The day’s trading volume surged to 256.3 million coins, and the significance of this data is that despite massive selling pressure, the price failed to break lower, indicating that market bottom-fishing demand effectively absorbed the selling pressure. This is a classic “capitulation selling” feature—high volume but price bounces from lows.

Turning point significance of key resistance

During the rebound, XRP has been repeatedly blocked in the $2.31-$2.32 range, which has now converted into the primary resistance level. While the short-term trend remains weak, the 60-minute chart shows that $2.258-$2.260 has formed short-term support, with lower lows gradually rising, suggesting the market is building a phase bottom.

The core issue is clear: Can XRP reclaim the $2.31-$2.32 zone? Once recovered, it will ease current downtrend pressures; if $2.21 is lost, it may trigger another round of liquidations.

Long-term Signal: First Technical Breakthrough Since 2018

Why monthly cloud breakthrough is so critical

Analyst The Great Mattsby pointed out that XRP/BTC monthly chart is approaching the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, which could be the first valid breakthrough signal since 2018. The key phrase here is “monthly timeframe”—this is not a short-term rebound, but a structural signal on the medium to long-term dimension.

From historical experience, monthly-level cloud breakthroughs often signal that an asset is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the medium to long term. This follows different logic than spot price fluctuations.

Relative strength vs. spot price

It’s important to emphasize that the bullish structure of XRP/BTC reflects more relative strength improvement rather than immediate spot price reversal. In other words, this signal suggests: within the framework of Bitcoin as the “liquidity anchor,” XRP is gaining opportunity for relative valuation uplift.

If this breakthrough is confirmed, XRP will be more likely to attract active buying support during subsequent pullbacks, especially in market environments where risk appetite is rising.

Market Context: Why This Timing Is Special

Background of cross-asset rotation at year start

The market is currently in a “cross-asset rotation” phase. According to latest data, Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow in nearly three months of approximately $697 million on Monday, indicating renewed institutional investor interest in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, XRP ETF is also accumulating capital with cumulative net inflows of approximately $43 million.

The essence of this rotation is layered risk pricing: institutional capital first flows into Bitcoin, then disperses to altcoins seeking excess returns. The relative strength improvement of XRP/BTC coincides with this rotation cycle.

Long-term fundamental support

From a fundamental perspective, Ripple is continuously expanding cross-border payment applications and plans XRPL protocol upgrades in 2026. More importantly, former SWIFT CEO Gottfried Leibbrandt acknowledged Ripple’s value proposition while noting that once regulations are set, SWIFT would welcome XRP. This indicates that as regulatory clarity improves, XRP’s application prospects are gaining recognition from traditional finance.

Summary

XRP currently faces a “short-term pressure + long-term opportunity” combination:

• Short-term view: $2.21 is the bull-bear dividing line, and $2.31-$2.32 is the key window for trend reversal. Performance in this price zone will determine near-term direction.

• Medium to long-term view: The XRP/BTC monthly cloud breakthrough signal is the first to appear since 2018, which is not a technical event to ignore. Once confirmed, the narrative of XRP outperforming Bitcoin over the medium term will return to market attention.

• Key observation: Spot price rebound needs to be coupled with long-term technical breakthrough in XRP/BTC. If both are confirmed simultaneously, this will be a highly convincing signal—combining both short-term bottom stabilization and long-term relative strength improvement.

Against the backdrop of early-year capital rotation and gradually clarifying regulations, this window deserves continued monitoring.