#比特币价格表现 Watching the 100,000 USDT prediction probability on Polymarket drop from 10% to 8%, I have to say this shift in market sentiment is quite interesting. In just two days, bearish sentiment has clearly intensified—the 95,000 USDT probability also fell from 32% to 25%, while the probability of breaking below 80,000 USDT has been expanding.

This is exactly what I've been saying—don't let FOMO take hold. When year-end rhetoric about pushing to 100,000 USDT was everywhere, I was just observing. The louder the market consensus, the greater the hidden risks often are. Now that probabilities are gradually being revised downward, it essentially reflects major capital adjusting expectations, not any real negative catalysts.

Anyone who's been through several bull-bear cycles knows that prediction probabilities are just barometers of market sentiment. When most people are betting at a certain price level, it often means the risk is already partially priced in. Those who truly survive longest are the ones who stay clear-headed during hype and don't blindly chase higher prices.

My suggestion: rather than obsessing over 100,000 versus 80,000 USDT, focus on understanding your own cost basis and risk tolerance. Stories about year-end rallies will always be told, but the account is yours. Protecting gains you've already made is worth far more than chasing illusory predictions.