The trend of $RIVER has once again validated the power of TWAP strategy——shorts have already taken significant losses. The current funding rate remains in an extremely negative zone, reflecting an interesting game being played by market participants.

From the perspective of the spot-perpetual futures spread, the current approximately 3% basis, while somewhat narrowed, still presents a subtle landscape. Longs can continue to utilize reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities via negative funding rates, but the window for such opportunities is limited. Once a major exchange's TWAP trading mechanism stops operating, the situation will quickly reverse, and longs will face difficulties as well. Thin order books mean the market lacks sufficient liquidity buffers, amplifying the risks of price volatility. The entire market is like standing at a critical juncture——seemingly calm on the surface, but with undercurrents swirling beneath.