Market is flooded with the voices of "four-year cycle believers", who repeatedly say "wait a bit more for the rebound" and "the bull market is still here", as if this theory will never become outdated. But what is the reality? Opening the monthly chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes it clear — this classic cycle theory has completely failed.

Many people do not realize that the so-called four-year cycle of BTC is essentially a reflection of the dollar cycle. In the past, the pace of dollar easing and tightening precisely corresponded to the four-year bull and bear rotations, but that era has ended. Today, the DXY has moved out of a unidirectional rise and fall pattern, entering a long-term oscillating downward channel. What does this mean? It means the driving force has changed, and the game rules must also change.

The core logic is actually very simple — BTC and DXY are two sides of the same mirror. When DXY falls, BTC rises; when DXY rises, BTC falls. This is not a coincidence, but an objective law of global capital flow. When the dollar weakens, global capital will withdraw from dollar assets and flow into higher-yield risk assets. As a globally priced cryptocurrency, BTC naturally becomes the optimal choice. Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, capital will flow back to the US.

I have verified this logic countless times over eight years of market monitoring, and it is the fundamental basis for my outlook on the future market. Instead of being trapped in the myth of the four-year cycle, it’s better to focus on the real trend of the dollar index — this is the key to understanding the next step in the crypto market.