Analista: A bolha de sobreaquecimento do Bitcoin BTC já foi digerida, mas a pressão de venda ainda não desapareceu

On-chain data analyst Axel’s latest research report indicates that the overheating phenomenon in the Bitcoin market has been completely eliminated, returning to a neutral cycle range; however, the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), which reflects the overall profit and loss status of the market, remains in a loss state. Axel straightforwardly states that the core issue in the current market is not whether Bitcoin is cheap enough, but whether seller pressure has been exhausted.
（Background: Mayer Multiple vs MVRV Z-Score: Are the two major BTC top indicators reliable?）
（Additional context: Bitcoin has fallen 23% in the first 50 trading days of this year, marking the worst start in history）

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• MVRV Z-Score drops to neutral zone, valuation bubble confirmed to have deflated
• aSOPR has been below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, sellers continue to sell at a loss
• The real issue is selling pressure

Since Bitcoin reached the cycle high in October 2025, it has undergone more than five months of correction. Two key on-chain indicators now give completely different signals: one says the bubble has burst, the other says selling pressure remains. On-chain data analyst Axel’s latest report interprets these contradictory signals.

MVRV Z-Score drops to neutral zone, valuation bubble confirmed to have deflated

The MVRV Z-Score is a core indicator measuring the degree of overvaluation in the Bitcoin market, calculated as the deviation of market cap relative to realized cap (the total on-paper cost basis of all holders). Higher values indicate overheating, approaching or even below zero, signifying extreme undervaluation.

As of the report release, the MVRV Z-Score is 0.674, a significant drop of 74% from the cycle high of 2.603 in October 2025. This value is well below the historical average (1.72) and far from the overheat warning zone within one standard deviation (3.55), now falling into the neutral cycle range of 0.5 to 1.0.

Axel Adler Jr. points out that the neutral zone indicates Bitcoin’s market cap is only moderately above realized cap, meaning the overall market still has slight unrealized gains, but the bubble has been fully absorbed. Historically, this level is often a key area for long-term investors to consider positioning, but low valuation alone does not trigger a rebound.

aSOPR has been below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, sellers continue to sell at a loss

Compared to the clear signal from the MVRV Z-Score, the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) continues to issue warning signals of selling pressure. As of the report, the 7-day moving average of aSOPR is 0.9926, maintaining below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days.

aSOPR is a direct indicator of the overall profit and loss state of the market, with a simple yet powerful logic:

• aSOPR > 1.0: Sellers are selling at a profit, profit-taking dominates the market
• aSOPR < 1.0: Sellers are selling at a loss, market continues to face selling pressure
• 1.0 level: the dividing line between bullish and bearish, a key point for trend reversal observation

Since the last time it crossed above 1.0 on January 21, 2026, aSOPR has not returned to the profit zone for over 55 trading days. This implies that during this period, any market rebound attempts face unliquidated trapped positions selling at high prices, suppressing further upward momentum.

The real issue is selling pressure

Faced with the contradiction of low valuation but persistent selling pressure, Axel directly points out the core problem in his report:

The key issue in the current market is not whether Bitcoin is cheap, but whether seller pressure has been exhausted. At least for now, the answer remains no.

This judgment’s core meaning is that even if valuation has returned to historical neutral levels, as long as selling pressure has not been fully digested, the rebound space will remain limited. Axel proposes an observable precondition for a reversal:

aSOPR must stay above 1.0 continuously for multiple trading days to confirm that selling pressure has truly been exhausted and that the market has the capacity for sustained upward movement.

This is not investment advice.