#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 Trump again invites Iran to negotiations, while increasing troops and seeking peace, what kind of game is he really playing?

Friends who have been paying attention to the US-Iran situation recently probably have their CPUs burning from Trump’s antics.
Not long ago, the first US-Iran negotiation lasted 21 hours, ending in an unhappy split, with Iran criticizing America as greedy, and the US dismissively saying “we provided the final plan, take it or leave it.”
Immediately after, the US announced plans to continue troop increases in the Middle East, with fighters, warships, and Marine units repeatedly heading there.
This caused international oil prices to surge, and the stock market to jump erratically, everyone thinking “war is imminent.”
But a few days later, news came that the US and Iran would return to the negotiation table, with Trump privately saying “willing to resume talks as soon as possible.”
This move left people stunned: brother, what medicine are you selling?
While shouting about troop increases and pressure, he also actively invites negotiations; sometimes threatening to destroy Iran, sometimes pretending to be gentle and sitting down to talk — faster than a Sichuan opera face-changing.
Today, let’s talk about what exactly Trump is hiding in his gourd.

Will the US-Iran war still happen?
And a key question: as president, can Trump really control the entire situation and influence this war?

First, let’s talk about Trump’s “confusing behavior,” which is essentially his most skilled tactic — maximum pressure.
In simple terms, it’s “slap and give a sweet date,” first forcing you into a corner, then giving you a step to step back, pushing you to compromise.
Looking back, we see that since taking office, he’s loved using this trick — his trade war with China was like this, and now with Iran it’s the same.
First, he maximizes threats — troop increases, blockades, harsh words — pushing Iran to the brink of economic collapse, then throws out olive branches for negotiations, forcing Iran to accept his harsh conditions.
Like this time, the first negotiation failed, Trump immediately ordered troop increases, and blocked Iranian ports, trying to cut off Iran’s oil exports.
Remember, Iran’s economy relies heavily on oil, exporting nearly 2 million barrels daily; blockade means cutting off their livelihood.
Even more absurd, during the first talks, the US proposed sharing the revenue from the Strait of Hormuz — outright theft.
Iran would never agree! After the talks broke down, troop increases were meant to tell Iran “no compromise, I’ll fight you.”
Now inviting negotiations again, it’s probably because they think “pressure is enough, it’s time for Iran to bow.”
In plain terms, Trump doesn’t really want a full-scale war; he wants to “control Iran.”
Why? Because if a real fight breaks out, the US can’t handle it. On one hand, Iran has the strategic card of the Strait of Hormuz, plus the Houthi rebels as allies; if they really push hard, blockading the strait could send global oil prices soaring.
US inflation is already hard to contain; if people can’t afford gas or food, they’ll blame Trump, affecting his re-election.
On the other hand, a full-scale war costs too much and takes too many lives. The US has spent years and billions fighting Iraq and Afghanistan, stuck in the quagmire.
Trump knows this well; he doesn’t want to repeat that mistake.

What will happen next in the US-Iran conflict?
Don’t worry, it probably won’t escalate into full-scale war soon. Most likely, it will fall into a “talking and exhausting, pressuring and stalling” deadlock.
That is, what experts call “limited escalation + intermittent negotiations.”
First, both sides are exhausted: US troop increases are just pressure, not actual combat; even the Russian security council leaked that US troop buildup might just be a pretext for negotiations.
They’re secretly preparing ground operations, but if they really want to fight, Trump will have to weigh the costs.
On Iran’s side, the war has devastated their economy, and people’s livelihoods are suffering; they don’t want to keep fighting, but also don’t want to lose face, so they’ll harden their stance against the US.
Second, negotiations will continue, but it’s unlikely they’ll reach an agreement soon.
Trump is already considering a second round of talks with Iran before the ceasefire agreement expires on April 21, but the core demands are still at odds.
The US wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, fully open the Strait, and wants a share of the profits.
Iran wants the US to lift sanctions, compensate for losses, and preserve its sovereignty.
In this situation, negotiations are just “going through the motions”: talks will go around in circles without results, at best a temporary ceasefire to extend peace, but the core issues remain unresolved.
As for oil prices and the stock market, as long as this “big drama” continues, stability is out of the question.
When the US increases troops, oil prices rise; Brent crude has already surged to $103.
Experts predict that if the conflict lasts several months, oil could break through $120.
The stock market is the same: as tensions rise, global markets shake; in short, ordinary people are footing the bill for Trump’s “tricks.”

Next, let’s discuss a key question: what kind of person is Trump?
Can he really control the entire war? First, Trump’s biggest traits are “selfishness, capriciousness, bravado, and cleverness,” and he only cares about one goal — winning votes and protecting interests.
All his actions regarding Iran are essentially for domestic politics: with midterm elections approaching, his tough stance on Iran can boost his approval ratings and create an image of a “strong leader,” even if it drives up oil prices.
Trump also has no bottom line; he flips opinions faster than flipping a book. Recently, he said “he wouldn’t send troops to Iran,” then added “but I won’t tell you if I do.”
While shouting about blocking Iran, he also says “willing to negotiate,” with no fixed principles — it all depends on his interests.
He’s like a “speculator,” leaning whichever way benefits him; his “war strategy” is really just his “election strategy.”
As for whether a president can control the war entirely, the answer is clear: no!
Don’t be fooled by Trump’s “tough” image; the US isn’t a one-man show.
According to the US Constitution, the power to declare war lies with Congress; the president can only command the military, not unilaterally decide to fight or not.
Congress has tried to push for a “War Powers Resolution” to limit Trump’s ability to escalate actions without authorization, but it was ultimately vetoed (since Republicans hold the majority).
This shows that Trump’s desire to wage war at will is simply not feasible.
Moreover, US domestic opinion isn’t monolithic: Democrats oppose Trump’s hardline stance on Iran, and the public doesn’t want to be dragged into another war, with costs in military spending and casualties.
US allies also don’t want to get involved blindly, fearing being dragged into the mess.
So, even if Trump wants to fight, he has to consider Congress, public opinion, and allies’ reactions — he can’t just do whatever he wants.
For example, Trump wants to send ground troops to Iran; although the US military has prepared, they’ve never dared to act, mainly because they fear repeating Iraq’s mistakes — once in a ground war, Trump’s re-election chances could be ruined.
Thus, Trump can only rely on “pressure through troop increases” and “max pressure tactics,” not on launching a full-scale war. His power has long been constrained by various factors.

In summary: Trump’s gourd is filled with “votes and interests.”
While increasing troops and negotiating isn’t about wanting war, it’s about forcing Iran to compromise and helping himself politically.
The US-Iran war won’t happen in the short term; it will just keep “talking and exhausting,” with oil prices and stocks affected.
As for Trump, he’s a capricious “opportunist,” who can’t control the entire war; US war decisions are never solely his to make.
In short, this US-Iran big show is Trump’s “political performance.”
And the Iranian people, Americans, and ordinary folks affected by oil prices and stocks are all “victims” of this show.
Whether negotiations will succeed or not isn’t the main point; what matters is that Trump’s tricks will continue, and the US-Iran game will go on.