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Lucaa
My overall positioning remains the same.
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve kept most of my spot holdings in equities, and especially crypto proxies, hedged in order to mitigate downside risk.
Until clear signs of strength emerge that confirm the bottom is durably in, I’m not looking to scale out of those hedges.
For now, I remain conservative and keep a moderate cash exposure, as I mentioned in one of my latest portfolio breakdowns.
That cash will be used to re-accumulate once signs of a bottoming formation appear, such as key high-timeframe support ranges being reclaimed, confirming that mo
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve kept most of my spot holdings in equities, and especially crypto proxies, hedged in order to mitigate downside risk.
Until clear signs of strength emerge that confirm the bottom is durably in, I’m not looking to scale out of those hedges.
For now, I remain conservative and keep a moderate cash exposure, as I mentioned in one of my latest portfolio breakdowns.
That cash will be used to re-accumulate once signs of a bottoming formation appear, such as key high-timeframe support ranges being reclaimed, confirming that mo
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A very interesting setup is developing on the low timeframes on Velo Data.
While the price is moving down and breaking below the high-timeframe support range at $65.9K, open interest is increasing and funding rates have moved deep into negative territory, suggesting that bears are doubling down on their short positions.
Technically, that can signal a deviation below the support range.
However, before I take a decisive stance, such as scaling out of my hedges and positioning for a reversal to the upside, I want to see clear signs of strength and the key high-timeframe support ranges I highlight
While the price is moving down and breaking below the high-timeframe support range at $65.9K, open interest is increasing and funding rates have moved deep into negative territory, suggesting that bears are doubling down on their short positions.
Technically, that can signal a deviation below the support range.
However, before I take a decisive stance, such as scaling out of my hedges and positioning for a reversal to the upside, I want to see clear signs of strength and the key high-timeframe support ranges I highlight
VELO-2,52%
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GateUser-ef0a6c01:
1000x VIbes 🤑:View More
$BTC - It looks like the price is currently losing the high-timeframe support range marked in purple, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci POI at $65.9K, which I highlighted in many of my prior PAT updates.
This is exactly why I said that before I scale out of my hedges and start rotating capital back into my spot holdings to re-accumulate, I want to see clear signs of strength, such as the price durably bouncing off this support range and reclaiming the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months.
For now, though, it looks like downside press
This is exactly why I said that before I scale out of my hedges and start rotating capital back into my spot holdings to re-accumulate, I want to see clear signs of strength, such as the price durably bouncing off this support range and reclaiming the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months.
For now, though, it looks like downside press
BTC-3,95%
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The Weekly Market Wrap-Up is officially back, after a couple of missed weeks!
This is one of the most important ones I've shared in a long-time and it's literally a $10-$15/mo newsletter I share for ABSOLUTELY FREE!
Check it out here:
This is one of the most important ones I've shared in a long-time and it's literally a $10-$15/mo newsletter I share for ABSOLUTELY FREE!
Check it out here:
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$USDT.D - The dominance of USDT is currently sitting at bear-market low levels, which has been a strong reversal area over the last couple of years.
Because of this, I’ve been leaning more toward the bullish side for the broader crypto market lately.
However, until there are clear signs of weakness in USDT.D, such as the price breaking below the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, and which would also align with bullish confirmations across the broader crypto market and reclaims of important high-timeframe support ranges that were
Because of this, I’ve been leaning more toward the bullish side for the broader crypto market lately.
However, until there are clear signs of weakness in USDT.D, such as the price breaking below the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, and which would also align with bullish confirmations across the broader crypto market and reclaims of important high-timeframe support ranges that were
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$BTC - Back in 2021, while the price was pushing higher and we were inside that distribution phase, the Exchange Balance was exploding higher.
This time, since September 2024, it has been trending down, with no signs of a durable distribution phase forming.
Meanwhile, most people on X are convinced that Q4 2026 will mark the bottom and that staying fully in cash is the safest move.
But what if the normal 4-year cycle doesn’t repeat?
What if this time the crowd is positioning for a script that never plays out, and gets caught off guard once again?
This time, since September 2024, it has been trending down, with no signs of a durable distribution phase forming.
Meanwhile, most people on X are convinced that Q4 2026 will mark the bottom and that staying fully in cash is the safest move.
But what if the normal 4-year cycle doesn’t repeat?
What if this time the crowd is positioning for a script that never plays out, and gets caught off guard once again?
BTC-3,95%
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$BTC - The price has been consolidating around the same high-timeframe support range I marked in many of my prior PAT updates at $67K over the last couple of days, and from a structural perspective, it’s looking good.
However, until there are clear signs of strength, such as the price durably bouncing off this high-timeframe support range and then reclaiming the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, confirming that the bottom is durably in and that the most likely outcome from here is a continuation to the upside, I believe the best
However, until there are clear signs of strength, such as the price durably bouncing off this high-timeframe support range and then reclaiming the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, confirming that the bottom is durably in and that the most likely outcome from here is a continuation to the upside, I believe the best
BTC-3,95%
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$ETH - I still don’t like the current market structure, as the price has not yet broken back above the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple, which I see as a clear sign of weakness.
Because of this, I believe that over the next couple of days, the best approach is to remain hedged, as I have been over the last couple of weeks following the breakdown below the high-timeframe support range marked in green at $2.7K, and to stay prepared for further downside.
Until we see clear signs of strength, such as the price breaking back above the support range at $2.15K, the most likely low-t
Because of this, I believe that over the next couple of days, the best approach is to remain hedged, as I have been over the last couple of weeks following the breakdown below the high-timeframe support range marked in green at $2.7K, and to stay prepared for further downside.
Until we see clear signs of strength, such as the price breaking back above the support range at $2.15K, the most likely low-t
ETH-4,06%
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GateUser-ce3fd1a7
:
Is hedging a strategy where you buy both long and short positions at the same time, and then sell the one that breaks out for profit?:Cryptic Trades Portfolio - Q1 2026 - One-Pager
Changes in exposure:
Most of the changes you’re seeing come from portfolio performance developments that naturally shifted the percentage weight of certain positions, even without me making active adjustments. The changes I did make are:
Increased exposure in: USD, TLT, LULU, UPS, AMD, BABA, IREN, CIFR
Decreased exposure in: MARA, CLSK, MSTR, OSCR, COIN
Added: N/A
The reason I reduced my exposure to MARA, CLSK, and MSTR is because I rebalanced into other Bitcoin miners, such as IREN and CIFR, or used part of the capital to rotate entirely into def
Changes in exposure:
Most of the changes you’re seeing come from portfolio performance developments that naturally shifted the percentage weight of certain positions, even without me making active adjustments. The changes I did make are:
Increased exposure in: USD, TLT, LULU, UPS, AMD, BABA, IREN, CIFR
Decreased exposure in: MARA, CLSK, MSTR, OSCR, COIN
Added: N/A
The reason I reduced my exposure to MARA, CLSK, and MSTR is because I rebalanced into other Bitcoin miners, such as IREN and CIFR, or used part of the capital to rotate entirely into def
BTC-3,95%
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The Fear and Greed Index is currently showing levels of fear higher than:
March 2020
June 2022
November 2022
August 2024
April 2025
This is where winners are born.
March 2020
June 2022
November 2022
August 2024
April 2025
This is where winners are born.
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Yesterday, we saw NFP grow by 130K in January, while the unemployment rate declined.
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at tec
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at tec
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$ETH – The price has bounced on the low timeframes; however, it has rejected at an important support range marked in purple at $2.1K, which was lost on the way down.
Because of this, until we see clear signs of strength, such as price reclaiming this lost support range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April bottoming formation, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That’s why I’m keeping my hedges in place to mitigate downside risk on the low timeframes.
Because of this, until we see clear signs of strength, such as price reclaiming this lost support range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April bottoming formation, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That’s why I’m keeping my hedges in place to mitigate downside risk on the low timeframes.
ETH-4,06%
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