The Fed’s rate cut scenario:

1. Time Node
There are two important time points for interest rate cut expectations: the Fed interest rate meetings on September 18 and November 7.
The US election date is November 5, voting day. Unofficial results will be announced that night or the next day, and official results will be announced at the end of the year.
2. Interest rate cut data
According to CME data on that day, on September 18, 30.6% of investors would not cut interest rates, 57.2% would cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, and 12% would cut interest rates by 5 basis points. The overall expected probability of a rate cut is 69.4%.
On November 7, the probability of no rate cut is 17.8%, a 2.5 basis point cut is 46.5%, a 5 basis point cut is 30.6%, and a 7.5 basis point cut is 5%. The overall expected rate cut probability is 82.4%.
3. Rate cut deduction
Taking into account the situation of the US election, the election will be two days before the interest rate cut in November. If the interest rate cut starts in November and the good news comes, the financial market will be hit during the election, causing market fluctuations and affecting the election results.
If interest rate cuts begin in September, there will still be two months until the November election. Even if the U.S. stock market crashes and corrects, there will be enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure stable stock market performance during the election.
4 Conclusion
Based on the above, the probability of a rate cut starting in September is the highest.
If this inference is correct, then in the three months from June to August, the financial market will have the potential benefit of interest rate cut expectations, which will be good for the U.S. stock market and the crypto market.
Bitcoin is forming a major upward trend. After May, the crypto market will continue to rise, but it will be slightly weaker in the third quarter.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is on the rise. The more Bitcoin rises, the greater the opportunities for the entire ecosystem will be. As institutions push up the price of Bitcoin, retail investors who cannot afford Bitcoin will consider the ecosystem, which will further boost the related ecosystem.
#CoinCircleObserver##BTC stands at $70K, will it break the historical high soon? #