So this week, all major altcoins basically rose by double digits or close to it, and this is the broadest rally since before the Iran war. Bitcoin briefly touched $75,912 but immediately dropped back below $74,400, which was previously a support level. It seems that the surge was more driven by derivatives activity than serious new spot buyers. Ether increased about 8.85% this week, XRP up 2.23%, Solana up 3.38%, Dogecoin up 1.18%, and BNB up 0.61%. Despite the insane intraday volatility, what’s more interesting is the weekly picture showing sustained momentum.

But what really deserves attention is the institutional money flow data behind this rally. The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted around $767 million in net inflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of positive flows. Previously, we saw five weeks of outflows totaling over $3 billion earlier this year. So there’s a clear shift in sentiment from institutional players. Plus, the gap between gold and Bitcoin has narrowed drastically; Bitcoin now leads by 13.2% since early March, and their 90-day correlation has shifted from negative to positive. The narrative of digital gold, which was previously dead, is now starting to revive.

Now all eyes are on the Fed meeting starting today through Wednesday. CME still predicts a more than 95% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, so the decision itself isn’t a big deal. What matters are the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. The current situation is a bit tricky because oil prices above $100 make a stagflation scenario seem inevitable, but the labor market is weak, with 92,000 jobs lost in February. The Fed is basically caught between two conflicting mandates, and how Powell articulates that tension on Wednesday could determine the direction of risk assets until the end of March. So we’ll just wait and see what Powell says, because that will drive the market next.