Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and the U.S. stock market enters earnings season

MeNews · 2026-04-12T08:00:18+00:00

This week's geopolitical developments caused fluctuations in energy and metal markets, with crude oil and gold under pressure. The US dollar index fell below 100, and the US stock market recovered. Next week, attention will be on US PPI, European Central Bank meeting minutes, and earnings reports from major banks; overall, the economic calendar is relatively light.

MeNews

2026-04-12 08:00:18

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ME News message, April 12 (UTC+8). This week’s dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment caused wild fluctuations in the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the fading of panic after the US and Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil became the biggest victim under the cooling narrative. Gold also felt pressure, giving back gains after breaking through $4,850. This week, the US dollar index fell below 100, and US stocks rebounded strongly after the ceasefire news.

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI, year-over-year; US March PPI, month-over-month
Wednesday 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker; Richmond Fed President Barkin; Boston Fed President Collins; and Federal Reserve Board Member Ball deliver remarks at a fireside chat during the Federal Reserve Board work forum
Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Member Barr delivers opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 04:30, API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10 in the US
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February industrial production, month-over-month
Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman speaks at the International Finance Forum
Thursday 02:00, the US Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, and the April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Thursday 21:15, US March industrial production, month-over-month
Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases the minutes from the March 19 policy meeting
Thursday TBA, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (G202(G20)) is held

Compared with the past few weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week marks the start of the Q1 2026 earnings season for US stocks. Large banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley will report results first, while firms such as BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson will also step in. Then tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release data in sequence. (Source: PANews)

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