Inflation, recession bets, and cryptocurrency flows

The macroeconomic backdrop remains a key question for crypto traders. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.3% year-over-year in April, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures even as key economic indicators moderate. Under these conditions, some market participants believe that the cryptocurrency market could benefit from a shift away from stocks if the macroeconomic environment does not achieve broad-based growth. The prices of the Kalshi market, which indicate a 24% chance of a recession in 2026, have declined in recent weeks, but they still influence risk assessments across both digital assets and traditional markets.

Vesser’s analysis suggests that a symmetrical recovery, in his view, depends on Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing key thresholds, along with the absence of any macroeconomic shock. This is clear to traders: price movements around psychological and technical levels could lead to a broader reassessment of risky assets, including altcoins that declined during a prolonged downtrend.