4.12, US-Iran negotiations did not break down, making it difficult for gold to drop significantly on Monday

Market review:

Last Friday, gold opened around 4767, then slightly retreated to the 4730 area, with the market under pressure and weakening, profit-taking gradually exited the market, and gold prices oscillated downward, with the bears temporarily in control. The closing session saw a slight stabilization and rebound, reaching near 4794 at the highest, once approaching the 4800 level, then faced resistance again and pulled back, finally closing around 4748. The daily chart closed with a bearish candle at a high level. Overall, although bullish momentum has weakened, it shows a pattern of opening low and rising high, with narrow fluctuations; support below remains solid, with no substantial break.

News analysis:

1. The good news about US-Iran negotiations is that the talks did not break down, but the bad news is that no breakthrough was achieved. Both sides likely have another round of negotiations. My personal interpretation is bullish (for gold), as it eliminates the extreme risk of "war if negotiations fail" while maintaining the premium of "disagreements persist, safe-haven demand remains," which is short-term positive for gold to oscillate at high levels and difficult to fall sharply.

2. Federal Reserve policies and economic data: Next week, several Fed officials will speak, and their stance on monetary policy should be watched. Hawkish signals will strengthen expectations of high interest rates, suppressing gold prices; dovish signals will boost expectations of rate cuts, helping gold rebound. Additionally, US economic data such as the April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also influence market sentiment.

On the daily chart, gold prices currently hold above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages turning upward, forming an initial bullish alignment. The medium-term rebound pattern remains intact. The MACD indicator shows increasing red bars, indicating strong bullish momentum; however, the KDJ J-value has entered a relatively strong zone and is approaching overbought territory, suggesting short-term consolidation may be needed.

On the 4-hour chart, gold's short-term moving averages are turning downward, with prices trading below MA5/MA10, temporarily supported by the MA20. MACD has shifted from red to green, with green bars gradually expanding, indicating initial bearish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, showing weakness. The key resistance level is at the 4800 USD round number; a successful break above could open the upside space, further challenging the previous high of 4857 USD. Support levels focus on the 5-day moving average at 4710; if it falls below 4700, it is likely to test the 10-day moving average at 4660–4650 USD. In the short term, gold remains in a wide range of 4700–4800 USD, and until a breakout occurs, it is advisable to continue trading within this range, going long at lows and short at highs.

Gold trading strategy: Short at 4780–4790 on rebounds, with a stop-loss at 4820, target 4730–4720.

If the price retraces to support around 4720–4700 and does not break below, go long with a stop-loss at 4680. Currently, around 4760–4780; if it effectively breaks below 4700, pursue short positions targeting 4680–4650–4600.

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.