2026-04-12 06:42:06

The Negotiation Table Breaks Down, Battlefield Fires Continue — US-Iran Talks End in Failure, Middle East Situation Adds New Variables

On April 12, at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, the highly watched US-Iran talks drew to a close after roughly 21 hours — not with a period, but with a huge question mark. At a press conference, US Vice President Vance announced that the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, and the US delegation would return to the United States. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s death toll has surpassed 2,000; the Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control under Iran’s gunpoint; and the Houthis have issued new threats toward the Red Sea. After a negotiation that had no winner ended, the suspense in the Middle East has only just begun.

1. 21 Hours of Games: US-Iran Negotiations Collapse

On the morning of April 12, local time, US Vice President Vance held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, announcing the final result of the negotiations. Vance said that after about 21 hours of talks, the two sides of the US and Iran still failed to reach an agreement. The two sides carried out multiple rounds of “substantive discussions,” but ultimately achieved nothing. The US side clearly put forward its own “red lines” and conditions that it deemed acceptable and unacceptable, while Iran “chose not to accept these terms.”

Vance said bluntly: “We have now conducted 21 hours (of negotiations) and had multiple substantive discussions with the Iranians. This is good news. The bad news is that we did not reach an agreement. I think this is worse for Iran than for the United States. We will return to the US without an agreement.”

The US’s core demands were never shaken. Vance pointed out that the US requires Iran not only to not develop nuclear weapons now but also to commit in the long term to not obtain related capabilities and technologies, yet “we have not seen such clear intent.” He emphasized that this goal is the central demand of US President Trump in the negotiations.

Vance also revealed that during the roughly 21 hours of talks, the US maintained “continuous communication” with President Trump and the national security team, and had presented Iran with a final package, pending the other side’s response. During the negotiations, Trump himself also said that the US-Iran talks could result in an agreement or might not, but for him “there is no difference.”

However, Iran’s narrative is entirely different. Iranian President Pezeshkian, in a phone call with French President Macron, said that Iran had participated seriously in the Islamabad talks, and whether the talks could succeed depended on the US side. An Iranian source also said that because the US side put forward excessive demands during the talks, the negotiation process did not make substantive progress, and serious disagreements still exist between the two sides on passage rights through the Strait of Hormuz and other key issues.

Iran’s tough stance runs throughout. During the talks, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that the Speaker of Iran’s parliament, Kalibaf, and the foreign minister, Araghi, had explicitly conveyed to the Pakistani side all of Iran’s considerations, views, and demands based on the “Ten-Point Plan,” including establishing jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, having the “aggressor” pay the full amount of war reparations, unfreezing Iran’s frozen assets unconditionally, and achieving a ceasefire within all geographic areas of the “Resistance Front.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchy had previously confirmed that all parties had agreed to use Iran’s “Ten-Point Plan” as the basis for negotiations — a package that includes core provisions such as a non-aggression treaty, recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities.

Subsequently, Iran’s government said on social media, “Although there are still some differences, the negotiations will continue.” But Vance’s statement has already shown that, at least for now, the US does not intend to stay at the negotiating table.

2. Vance’s “Thanks” and Trump’s “Not Caring”

At the press conference, Vance expressed thanks to Pakistan for its mediation, saying it “did an excellent job,” and indeed worked to help the US and Iran bridge differences and reach an agreement. He also emphasized that the negotiations’ failure to produce results was not due to Pakistan.

In an interview at the White House, Trump said that the US-Iran talks in Islamabad could lead to an agreement or might not, but for him “there is no difference.” This remark carries a rather thought-provoking signal: in Trump’s view, the diplomatic chess game across the negotiation table does not seem to be that important — what matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately opened, whether Iran’s nuclear program is contained, and Trump clearly does not intend to rely entirely on negotiations to resolve these issues.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei had previously put forward, in a written form, “three points”: the aggressors must compensate for losses; management of the Strait of Hormuz will enter a new stage; Iran will never give up its legitimate rights and regards all “Resistance Front” in the region as a whole. This position has never shifted throughout the entire negotiation process.

3. Gunfire Outside the Negotiation Table: Lebanon Death Toll Surpasses 2,000

While the US and Iranian representatives argued over terms in the Islamabad conference rooms, Lebanon’s war fire was still burning.

According to data released by Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health on April 11, since the fighting between Israel and Lebanon reignited on March 2, attacks launched by Israel against Lebanon have resulted in 2,020 deaths and 6,436 injuries. In just the large-scale airstrikes carried out by Israel on April 8 alone, at least 357 people were killed and 1,223 injured; and because the wreckage is still being cleared, the actual death toll has not yet been finalized.

Even more heartbreaking is that since the US and Iran announced a ceasefire until the morning of April 12, Israel’s 10-minute airstrike has killed at least 300 civilians, including 120 children and 80 elderly people. In total, more than 420 homes were destroyed, and three hospitals and 27 health clinics were shut down completely due to the bombings. Data from a “Golden Ten” report on April 12 said that on Saturday, a series of airstrikes by Israel on five towns in southern Lebanon killed 19 more people.

The humanitarian crisis borne by Lebanon continues to worsen. More than 1 million Lebanese have lost their homes due to Israeli airstrikes, including more than 130,000 people placed in government-designated shelters. The Lebanese government has repeatedly urged the international community to step in, but Israel’s military operations are still ongoing. The first meeting originally scheduled for April 14 between the two countries’ ambassadors to the US—Israel and Lebanon—at the US Department of State was set to discuss the ceasefire, but Israel has clearly stated that it refuses to discuss a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is, in fact, the actual belligerent in this war.

4. The Strait of Hormuz: Passage Under a Gun’s Mouth

As news of the collapse of the talks broke, the situation at the Strait of Hormuz remained tense.

According to an April 11 report by the Iranian Fars News Agency, the ship tracking website “Maritime Traffic” showed that the current passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, and all transiting vessels pass under direct Iranian monitoring. On the same day, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency reported that in the Islamabad talks, the US obstructed the establishment of the negotiation framework in what it described as the “usual style of exorbitant demands,” and the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core issues where the two sides have serious disagreements.

The British Financial Times, citing informed sources, reported that Iran refused to accept the US proposal for “joint control” of the Strait of Hormuz, insisting on retaining control rights over this key waterway and stating that it has the right to charge “tolls” to ships passing through. Earlier reports said Iran wants to charge at a rate of $1 per barrel, with payment only permitted in cryptocurrency or RMB—an insistence that Trump strongly opposed.

At the press conference, although Vance did not directly mention the strait issue, he emphasized that the US has “very clearly stated its own red lines,” making it clear on which issues it is willing to make concessions and on which issues it will not. Obviously, control rights over the Strait of Hormuz belong to the latter.

Data show that currently, hundreds of vessels remain stuck inside the Persian Gulf, including more than 400 tankers. Shipping companies generally take alternative routes that bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transportation costs by about 25%. The restoration of the global energy supply chain is far from certain.

5. The Threat from the Houthis: Red Sea Might Become a Second Front

With the US-Iran talks breaking down and Israel continuing strikes on Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi threat is shifting from “warnings” to “reality.”

Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi had already made clear that Israel’s continued aggression against Lebanon could lead to a full-scale restart of the conflict, and he said it had “completely and finally prevented Israel and the United States from using the Red Sea for hostile military purposes.” The Houthis’ military spokesperson, Yahya Sareya, had previously claimed that within the past 24 hours, the Houthis used missiles and drones for the third time to attack the US aircraft carrier “Harry S. Truman” and other “enemy warships” located in the Red Sea.

The Houthi threat is directly linked to the situation in Lebanon. Analysts point out that the Houthis are tying their military operations in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb to the fate of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Once the Strait of Mandeb is blocked, plus the Strait of Hormuz still under strict control, the global energy supply chain will face dual pressure from both the east and west ends.

The Red Sea route carries about 12% of global trade transport volume. Some shipping companies have already chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope due to security risks in the Red Sea, adding about 15 to 20 days to the voyage and increasing insurance costs by several multiples compared with normal times. If the situation further deteriorates, the global supply chain will face even greater pressure.

6. The Price of War: More Than 4,400 Lives

No matter what ultimately is reached at the negotiation table, the cost already paid by this war cannot be undone.

According to figures released by the World Health Organization on April 9, since February 28, the US and Israel’s large-scale military strikes against Iran have led to nearly 2,400 deaths in Iran and more than 32,000 injuries, with another 3.2 million people displaced. The US and Israel’s military actions have also caused more than 1,700 deaths in Lebanon and nearly 6,000 injuries, and more than 1 million Lebanese have lost their homes. Adding Israel’s 24 deaths and over 7,000 injuries, this conflict has already resulted in more than 4,400 deaths and over 45,000 injuries, and more than 4.2 million people have been forced into displacement.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Turc, previously said that the United States and Israel are increasingly striking densely populated residential areas in Iran and trying to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Among them, strikes against nuclear facilities are described as “incomprehensibly reckless conduct.”

7. Future Uncertainties

After the talks collapsed, the future direction of the situation in the Middle East is full of uncertainty.

The US delegation will return to the United States, and whether Trump will take further military action remains the biggest suspense. Iran says “the negotiations will continue,” but Vance’s statement shows that at least for now, the US does not intend to return to the negotiating table.

Israel’s military action against Lebanon is still ongoing, and the outlook for the Lebanon-Israel talks originally scheduled to be held in Washington on April 14 remains unclear. Iran insists that a Lebanon ceasefire be included in the negotiation framework, while the United States says that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” This fundamental disagreement could not be resolved in the Islamabad negotiations, and it may not necessarily be bridged in the future.

The Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control by Iran, and hundreds of vessels are still trapped inside the Persian Gulf. Restoring shipping operations to pre-war passage levels may take months.

The Houthi threat toward the Red Sea continues to escalate. If fighting in Lebanon keeps expanding, the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb could become the next “powder keg” in the Middle East.

Conclusion: 21 Hours of Negotiations, Failing to Bridge Decades of Divides Between the US and Iran. Vance said, “This is bad news for Iran,” and Iran said, “Whether the negotiations succeed depends on the US side.” Between these two narratives lies a width of the Strait of Hormuz. And beyond the negotiation table, under Lebanon’s rubble, new bodies are still being excavated; in the Persian Gulf, ships still await passage permissions; and US aircraft carriers in the Red Sea are still facing the Houthi missile threat. This war has no winners, but there are already too many losers. The collapse of negotiations is not the endpoint—it is the starting point of a new round of games.

#Gate廣場四月發帖挑戰

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RiverOfPassion2026-04-12 03:34:08

The Negotiation Table Breaks Down, Battlefield Fire Continues — US-Iran Talks End in Failure, Middle East Situation Adds New Variables

On April 12, at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, the highly watched US-Iran negotiations drew to a close after about 21 hours—ending not with a period, but with a huge question mark. At a press conference, US Vice President Vance announced that the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, and the US delegation would return to the United States. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s death toll had already exceeded 2,000, the Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control at the point of an Iranian gun, and the Houthis have issued new threats toward the Red Sea. After a negotiation that had no winner ended, the suspense in the Middle East was only just beginning.

1. 21 Hours of Gaming: US-Iran Talks Break Down

On the morning of April 12, local time, US Vice President Vance held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad and announced the final outcome of the negotiations. Vance said that after about 21 hours of talks, the US and Iran still had not reached an agreement. Both sides carried out multiple rounds of “substantive discussions,” but in the end produced no results. The US side had clearly put forward its own “red lines” and the conditions it found acceptable and unacceptable, while Iran “chose not to accept these terms.”

Vance said plainly: “We have now conducted 21 hours (of negotiations), and we’ve had multiple substantive discussions with the Iranians. This is good news. The bad news is that we did not reach an agreement. I think this is worse news for Iran than it is for the United States. We will return to the United States without an agreement.”

The US side’s core demands never wavered. Vance pointed out that the US requires Iran not only to not develop nuclear weapons now, but also to commit in the long term to not obtain the relevant capabilities and technologies; however, “we have not yet seen such a clear willingness.” He emphasized that this goal is the central demand of US President Trump in the negotiations.

Vance also revealed that during the roughly 21-hour negotiation process, the US maintained “continuous communication” with President Trump and the national security team, and had already presented Iran with a final package, waiting for the other side to respond. During the negotiations, Trump himself said that talks between the US and Iran might result in an agreement, or might not—but for him, “there’s no difference.”

However, Iran’s narrative was completely different. During a phone call with French President Macron, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran had seriously participated in the Islamabad talks, and whether the negotiations would succeed depended on the US. An Iranian source also said that because the US made excessive demands during the negotiations, the talks did not make substantive progress, and there were still serious disagreements between the two sides over the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and other key issues.

Iran’s tough stance ran throughout. During the negotiations, Baghae, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Aragzi had clearly conveyed to the Pakistani side all of Iran’s considerations, views, and demands based on the “ten-point plan,” including establishing jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, having the “aggressor” pay the full amount of war reparations, unfreezing Iranian frozen assets unconditionally, and achieving a ceasefire within all geographic areas of the “resistance front.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanch previously confirmed that all parties had agreed to use Iran’s “ten-point plan” as the basis for negotiations—the plan includes core terms such as a mutual non-aggression treaty, recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities.

Subsequently, the Iranian government said on social media that “although there are still some differences, the negotiations will continue.” But Vance’s statement has already shown that at least for now, the US does not intend to stay at the negotiating table.

2. Vance’s “Thanks” and Trump’s “Not Much Concern”

At the press conference, Vance thanked Pakistan for its mediation, saying that it “did an excellent job,” and that it indeed worked to help bridge differences between the US and Iran and reach an agreement. He also emphasized that the failure to achieve results in the negotiations was not due to Pakistan.

At an interview at the White House, Trump said that the talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad might lead to an agreement, or they might fail—but for him, “there’s no real difference.” This statement sends a rather thought-provoking signal: in Trump’s view, the diplomatic game at the negotiating table does not seem to be that important—what matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately opened, whether Iran’s nuclear program is restrained, and clearly Trump does not plan to rely entirely on negotiations to resolve these matters.

At the same time, Iran’s top leader Mujtaba Khamenei had earlier put forward a written “three-point proposal”: aggressors must compensate for losses; management of the Strait of Hormuz will enter a new stage; Iran will never give up its legitimate rights, and will treat all “resistance front” forces in this region as a whole. This position never changed throughout the negotiations.

3. Artillery Fire Beyond the Negotiation Table: Lebanon Death Toll Breaks 2,000

While US and Iranian representatives debated terms inside the Islamabad meeting room, Lebanon’s war fires were still burning.

According to data released by Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health on April 11, since hostilities between Lebanon and Israel reignited on March 2, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have caused 2,020 deaths and 6,436 injuries. Just in the large-scale airstrikes carried out by Israel on April 8 alone, at least 357 people were killed and 1,223 injured, and because debris was still being cleared, the actual death toll had not yet been finalized.

Even more heartbreaking is that since the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran until the morning of April 12, Israeli airstrikes lasting only 10 minutes had killed at least 300 civilians, including 120 children and 80 elderly people; a total of over 420 homes had been destroyed, and 3 hospitals and 27 health clinics had been shut down completely due to the bombings. Jinwu Data reported on April 12 that on Saturday, a series of Israeli airstrikes on five towns in southern Lebanon caused another 19 deaths.

Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. More than 1 million Lebanese have lost their homes due to airstrikes by the Israeli forces, including more than 130,000 people placed in government-designated shelters. The Lebanese government has repeatedly called on the international community to step in, but Israel’s military actions are still ongoing. The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the US had originally been scheduled to hold their first meeting at the US Department of State on April 14 to discuss a ceasefire, but Israel clearly stated that it would refuse to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah of Lebanon—and Hezbollah is the actual belligerent in this war.

4. Strait of Hormuz: Passage Under the Barrel of a Gun

As news of the negotiations’ breakdown spread, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained tense.

According to a report by Iran’s Fars News Agency on April 11, data from the ship-tracking website “Maritime Traffic” shows that vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently still extremely limited, and all transiting ships pass under direct monitoring by Iran. The Tasnim News Agency of Iran reported the same day that in the Islamabad talks, the US obstructed agreement on the negotiation framework with what it called “the usual exorbitant bargaining tactics,” and the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core issues where serious differences exist between the two sides.

The UK’s Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran refused to accept the US proposal for “joint control” of the Strait of Hormuz, insisting on retaining control over this key waterway, saying it has the right to charge “tolls” to ships passing through. Earlier reports said that Iran wanted to charge $1 per barrel, with payment only possible in cryptocurrency or RMB—this demand was strongly opposed by Trump.

Although Vance did not directly mention the Strait issue at the press conference, he emphasized that the US “very clearly spelled out its ‘red lines,’” making it clear on which issues it was willing to make concessions and on which issues it would not. Clearly, control over the Strait of Hormuz belongs to the latter.

Data shows that there are still hundreds of vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf, including more than 400 oil tankers. Shipping companies generally take alternative routes that bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transportation costs by about 25%. The restoration of the global energy supply chain is a long way off.

5. Threats From the Houthis: The Red Sea May Become a Second Front

With the breakdown of US-Iran talks and Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi threat is shifting from “warnings” to “reality.”

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi had previously made it clear that Israel’s continued aggression in Lebanon could lead to a full-scale restart of hostilities, and said that it had “completely and finally prevented Israel and the US from using the Red Sea for hostile military purposes.” The Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea previously claimed that within the past 24 hours, the Houthis used missiles and drones for the third time to attack the US aircraft carrier “USS Harry S. Truman” and other “enemy warships” located in the Red Sea.

The Houthi threat is directly linked to the situation in Lebanon. Analysts point out that the Houthis are tying their military operations in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the fate of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Once the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, and combined with the Strait of Hormuz still being under strict control, the global energy supply chain will face dual pressure from both the east and the west.

The Red Sea route accounts for about 12% of global trade transportation volume. Some shipping companies have already chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope due to security risks, increasing the voyage time by about 15 to 20 days and multiplying insurance costs by several times compared with normal. If the situation deteriorates further, the global supply chain will face even greater pressure.

6. The Bill for War: More Than 4,400 Lives

No matter what agreement is ultimately reached at the negotiating table, the cost already paid by this war cannot be undone.

Data released by the World Health Organization on April 9 shows that since February 28, the large-scale military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have resulted in nearly 2,400 deaths in Iran and more than 32,000 injuries, with another 3.2 million people displaced. US and Israeli military actions have also led to more than 1,700 deaths in Lebanon, nearly 6,000 injuries, and more than 1 million Lebanese losing their homes. Adding Israel’s 24 deaths and over 7,000 injuries, this conflict has caused more than 4,400 people to die and more than 45,000 to be injured, with more than 4.2 million people displaced.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Türk previously said that the US and Israel are increasingly striking densely populated residential areas in Iran and trying to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Among them, attacks targeting nuclear facilities were described as “an utterly irrationally reckless act.”

7. Future Uncertainty

After the negotiations broke down, the future direction of the Middle East is full of uncertainty.

The US delegation will return to the United States, and whether Trump will take the next step in military action remains the biggest suspense. Iran has said “the negotiations will continue,” but Vance’s statement indicates that at least for now, the US does not plan to return to the negotiating table.

Israel’s military operations against Lebanon are still ongoing, and the outlook for the Lebanon-Israel talks scheduled to be held in Washington on April 14 remains unclear. Iran insists on including a ceasefire in Lebanon in the negotiation framework, while the US says a ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” This fundamental disagreement was not resolved in the Islamabad negotiations, and may not be able to be bridged in the future.

The Strait of Hormuz remains under strict Iranian control, with hundreds of vessels still trapped inside the Persian Gulf. Restoring shipping to pre-war levels may take months.

The threat from the Houthis toward the Red Sea continues to escalate. If the fighting in Lebanon continues to expand, the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may become the next “powder keg” in the Middle East.

Conclusion: 21 Hours of Negotiations Could Not Bridge the Decades-Long Gap Between the US and Iran. Vance said “this is bad news for Iran,” while Iran said “whether the talks succeed depends on the US”—between these two narratives lies the width of the Strait of Hormuz. And beyond the negotiating table, beneath the rubble in Lebanon, new bodies are still being dug out; in the Persian Gulf, ships still wait for clearance to pass; and US aircraft carriers in the Red Sea are still facing the missile threat from the Houthis. This war has no winners, but there have been too many losers already. The breakdown of talks is not the end—it is the starting point for a new round of games.

#Gate廣場四月發帖挑戰

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