The US-Iran negotiations ended without result, with the Strait of Hormuz becoming one of the biggest sticking points. The US military's high-profile "mine clearance" efforts were warned by Iran of being sunk.

Author: Zhao Ying

Source: Wall Street Insights

The historic high-level US-Iran negotiations ended without an agreement, while the military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz that erupted during the talks has pushed the control of this strategic waterway to the forefront of diplomatic bargaining.

According to CCTV News, after approximately 21 hours of talks held in Pakistan, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

During the negotiations, Iran and the U.S. engaged in a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posted on social media on the 11th that the U.S. “began clearing the Strait of Hormuz,” claiming that Iran’s 28 mine-laying boats “are all sunk at the bottom of the sea.” Iran responded strongly, with Xinhua News Agency citing Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reporting that after Iran issued a stern warning, U.S. warships had returned from the Strait of Hormuz.

The two major events unfolded simultaneously, making the market increasingly cautious about the prospects of the negotiations. Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro bluntly said that the possibility of reaching a substantive agreement on core disagreements is “zero,” and a more realistic outcome is to reach some kind of understanding on passage rights in the Strait of Hormuz to prolong the negotiation process.

Strait Confrontation: Both Sides Stand Their Ground

The events in the Strait on the 11th reveal fundamental differences in accounts. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. media citing U.S. officials reported that two U.S. destroyers traversed the Strait of Hormuz east to west into the Persian Gulf, then returned through the strait to the Arabian Sea. The U.S. Central Command stated that after completing their mission in the Persian Gulf, the two destroyers left as planned, with no incidents occurring. This move aimed to demonstrate that the U.S. does not accept Iran’s control over the strait and to initiate the process of reopening commercial channels, while also launching a broader mission to use underwater drones to clear mines from the strait.

A nearby civilian vessel recorded radio communications showing both sides deliberately restrained at the time. Iran warned the U.S. warships: “This is the last warning, this is the last warning.” The U.S. responded that they were passing under international law, had no intention of provocation, and would abide by their government’s ceasefire regulations.

However, Iran’s statements were entirely different. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s armed forces issued a stern warning after closely monitoring the U.S. warships’ positions, and conveyed the situation to the U.S. negotiating team through Pakistan, explicitly stating that “if U.S. warships continue to sail, they will be sunk within 30 minutes, and U.S.-Iran negotiations will be affected.”

On April 12, the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement further emphasizing that it has full control over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, currently only allowing non-military ships to pass under specific regulations, and denying reports of U.S. warships passing through the strait.

This round of negotiations: highest level, deepest divisions

This Pakistan meeting is considered the highest-level formal diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Iran since the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979. The U.S. delegation was led by Vice President Vance, with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participating; the Iranian delegation was headed by Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and senior diplomatic and security officials including Ali Bagheri Kani.

The talks lasted several hours and involved technical experts discussing specific issues. However, according to CCTV News, after about 21 hours of negotiations, Vance stated that no agreement had been reached, and multiple rounds of “substantive discussions” ultimately failed to produce results. Disputes over nuclear programs, missile systems, and support for regional armed groups—issues that have troubled both sides for over twenty years—remained unresolved.

The participation of many hardliners in the Iranian negotiating team also kept the outlook cautious. Bagheri Kani and senior parliamentarian Mahmoud Nabavian had previously opposed diplomatic efforts to restrict Iran’s nuclear program; security official Ali Akbar Ahmadian was sanctioned by Canada in 2023 for his role in Iran’s drone program. Analysts note that while the involvement of hardliners increases the difficulty of negotiations, if an agreement is ultimately reached, their endorsement will also lend the deal greater durability.

Control of the Strait: The Most Urgent Issue in Negotiations

Control over the Strait of Hormuz is the most pressing issue in this round of negotiations and the most sensitive unresolved matter for markets after the talks failed.

Since the ceasefire, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has drastically reduced the volume of traffic through the strait and implemented a toll system. According to CCTV News, ship tracking website “Maritime Traffic” shows that vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with all transiting ships under direct Iranian surveillance.

Media reports indicate that Trump has shown increasing impatience with Iran’s failure to reopen the strait, which is a prerequisite for the two-week ceasefire agreement. Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, said Iran’s public effort to unfreeze billions of dollars in assets indicates that this will be one of its conditions for temporarily relaxing the blockade of the strait. She also warned that “the strait issue is the most urgent, and the U.S. cannot let it overshadow the core conflict over nuclear issues.”

Behind the Confrontation: Testing and Restraint Coexist

From the actual development of this confrontation, both sides have demonstrated a certain degree of restraint under tough rhetoric—U.S. forces completed their crossing and left, while Iran has incorporated the situation into negotiation channels rather than taking direct military action. This situation has continued since last Thursday, with the overall trend of the U.S. ceasing strikes and Iran significantly reducing drone and missile attacks in the Gulf region.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, believes that Ghalibaf’s ability to maintain high-level talks despite the challenge posed by U.S. warships in the strait indicates he has the authority to impose constraints on Iran’s political system. Vakil said, “This is the U.S. testing the other side, seeing if they will respond with restraint.”

With negotiations having ended in failure, whether the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be managed in subsequent contacts will directly determine the stability of passage through this globally vital energy route and whether there is room for broader U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress.