On April 12, after a brief ceasefire period, the situation in the Middle East changed dramatically over the weekend. The 21-hour negotiations between the US and Iran ended without an agreement, as Iran rejected the US-proposed point on “the inadmissibility of developing nuclear weapons.” US Vice President Vance announced the end of the dialogue but left room for interpretation. The two-week pause in attacks, announced by Trump, is nearing its end, and further steps remain unclear.

Meanwhile, an American destroyer stated that it completed its first post-war passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran officially denied, indicating that the information war between the two sides continues. Next week, geopolitical factors will once again dominate market sentiment, and any news about the Strait of Hormuz could trigger fluctuations in asset prices. In addition to geopolitical issues, the macroeconomic calendar next week will focus on two key cues: first, a series of statements from Federal Reserve officials, coinciding with the release of the Beige Book, providing market signals; second, the US PPI index for March, to be published on Tuesday, will serve as a key indicator for measuring the extent to which energy price shocks are transmitted into production costs.

In addition, such banking giants as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the first-quarter earnings season. The important event timelines are as follows: Tuesday at 20:30, the US March annual and monthly PPI index; Wednesday at 00:15, FOMC voting member 2027 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participate in a panel discussion at the Semafor World Economic Conference; Wednesday at 00:45, Fed member Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum; Wednesday at 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat; Thursday at 01:40, Fed member Bowman speaks; Thursday at 02:00, the Fed publishes the Beige Book on the state of the economy; Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity index for April; Thursday at 20:35, an FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; Thursday TBD, the European Central Bank publishes the monetary policy meeting minutes from March 19, and a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors takes place.

The March PPI data, to be released by the US on Tuesday, will become the first key report to quantify the extent to which energy price shocks from the conflict in the Middle East penetrate production costs. Economists at Commerzbank clearly warned that the pass-through effect of energy prices to non-energy goods “can change rapidly,” and if the PPI exceeds expectations, it will further narrow the window for Fed rate cuts—currently, the market has all but ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year.

Next week, US stocks will officially enter the first-quarter 2026 earnings season, with major banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase among the first to release results, followed by tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix, which will sequentially publish their data. This earnings season is viewed as a critical window to test the resilience of corporate earnings, the durability of AI demand, and the impact of the macroeconomic environment.