Here's a very realistic thing:

The Iran-U.S. talks have collapsed, and the U.S. delegation has already returned home!
If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked or semi-blocked for a few more months, the global economy will really go haywire.
Don’t think it has nothing to do with you; this directly determines how oil prices $CL and gold prices $XAU move.
First, look at the most critical point: do countries’ oil reserves last enough for half a year?
- Japan: The largest reserves, about 100 days, can endure, but inflation will explode
- South Korea: Around 110 days, also able to endure, but industrial costs will skyrocket
- China: 90–120 days, multiple channels, strong buffer, moderate pressure
- India: Only over 20 days, most vulnerable, easy to face oil shortages and purchase restrictions
- Australia: Domestic oil production is okay, but refined oil relies entirely on imports, reserves only 30–40 days, if blocked for half a year, gas stations might limit sales
- Europe: Crude oil doesn’t mainly rely on the strait, so not a big problem, but natural gas and diesel are critical, storage is low, this winter will be very tough
To put it simply:
Few countries can withstand it; most are just toughing it out.
Now, looking at the Strait side:
A complete blockade for half a year is impossible, but it’s likely to be semi-paralyzed—ships can still go, but slow, expensive, risky, ships dare not come, insurance costs skyrocket, and shipping volume is cut in half.
If a few million barrels of oil are missing daily worldwide, how do you think oil prices will move?
No need to think much; a sharp rise is a sure thing.
As long as supply is tight and geopolitics are unstable, gold can’t fall.
Money becomes worthless, inflation will rise, and the situation will be unstable—funds will flow into gold.
In contrast, the crypto market will also likely see a wave of decline due to global inflation and regional conflicts, but once the market accepts that the Strait won’t be smooth in the short term and economies face inflation and soaring prices $BTC , gold will also enter a bull market!
To sum up in one sentence:
As long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for half a year, oil will surge, and gold will follow!
This is not a prediction; it’s the simplest supply and demand principle.