Analyst: The US and Iran have not reached an agreement; Bitcoin may fall back to $65,000

Mars Finance News, April 12th, according to Forbes, after 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Pence stated that no agreement was reached, and Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Previously, Trump warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement “total destruction” on Iran. The Iran conflict has caused turbulence in the crypto markets for weeks, compounded by tariff disputes, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $70,000 earlier this month. Before negotiations began, crypto analysts stated: if an agreement is reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations break down, it could fall back to $65,000.
On the bullish side, on-chain wallet data shows that the largest Bitcoin whale has continued to buy during the most intense periods of geopolitical turmoil, rather than sell. The logic is: if the conflict further escalates, leading to disruptions in Persian Gulf oil supplies, causing oil prices to rise, inflation to increase, and the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, then scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well.
On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff said that as the conflict intensifies, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicts Bitcoin will “collapse,” claiming gold is the only true safe haven asset during wartime, and further suggests that insiders within the administration may be profiting from volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his “total destruction” threat, stock markets and crypto markets will almost certainly sell off in tandem.
Regarding future developments, Pence expressed a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Iranian Parliament Speaker called for a ceasefire in Lebanon and the lifting of frozen assets before participating in formal talks. For Bitcoin traders, the key in the next 72 hours hinges on two issues: whether a ceasefire agreement can be maintained, and whether Trump will escalate the conflict. Currently, some whale wallets continue to buy at the current price levels, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.