On April 12th, the U.S. March inflation data was released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.3% year-over-year, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%; core CPI rose by 2.6% annually, also lower than the expected 2.7%. Although the data is considered "moderate compared to expectations," the inflation level remains the highest since May 2024.

Market reactions indicate that inflation trends have already been priced in. Interest rate expectations have quickly been readjusted, with the rate cut timetable pushed further back to 2026. Regarding risk assets, Bitcoin (BTC) closed up 1.63% on the day, once again challenging the stubborn resistance level of $75k, showing no significant weakening of risk appetite despite geopolitical pressures.
On a macro level, rising inflation is not sudden. In early March, tensions in West Asia escalated, triggering supply shocks in the oil market, with oil prices briefly surpassing $112 per barrel. Energy costs drove inflation expectations higher in advance. In other words, the "below expectations" CPI more reflects that the market has already digested the inflationary pressure from energy in advance, rather than reacting to new information in real time.