Shanghai's March transaction volume of second-hand homes reached 31k units, with new home transactions increasing by 101.9% month-on-month.

Ask AI · How do Shanghai’s “Seven Policies” drive a rise in both transaction volume and prices in the second-hand housing market?

Cailian News, April 1 (Reporter Wang Haichun) Shanghai’s second-hand home transaction volume in March broke through the 30,000 mark.

According to data disclosed today by Shanghai Lianjia, in March this year, Shanghai’s entire citywide second-hand housing transaction volume reached 31,000 units. This not only represented a 6% year-on-year increase compared with March last year, but also surged 37% compared with January this year.

Zhang Bo, head of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that based on data monitored on its platform, “30 days after the implementation of the ‘Seven Policies of Shanghai,’ Shanghai’s average daily second-hand home transactions hit 961 units. This is a substantial 22.9% increase compared with after the 2024 policy (the previous round of policies). The policy ‘pulse’ strength has been significantly enhanced, and the heat’s continuity has also been far beyond earlier periods, with weekly transaction volumes consistently staying at a high level.”

“Areas in Shanghai such as Zhangjiang, Jiading New Town, and some improvement-demand-concentrated segments inside the inner ring have seen a more noticeable rise in heat. These areas have rebounded quickly, mainly driven by policy relaxation, the release of improvement-type demand, the scarcity of core assets, and the market expectation recovery. Capital and heat continue to concentrate toward core cities,” Zhang Bo said.

Not only transaction volume, but on the price front as well, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market has shown positive signals of stabilizing and rebounding. Shanghai Lianjia data shows that in March, the second-hand housing price index rose 1% month-over-month. Meanwhile, as a leading indicator, the number of viewings increased 28% compared with January, providing strong support for subsequent transactions.

“As transaction volume stabilizes, homeowners’ asking prices have become more firm, and the room for negotiation has clearly narrowed. Taking Shanghai as an example, the bargaining range for second-hand homes shrank from the previous 5%–8% to 2%–3%. In some listings in core areas, there have even been cases of slight price increases,” Zhang Bo said.

In Li Gen’s view, head of the Shanghai Research Institute of Centaline Property, the “early spring” in Shanghai’s second-hand housing market in March has been very strong in terms of substance, with transaction data directly attesting to a powerful return of market confidence.

“A set of data like this fully shows that the targeted implementation of the ‘Seven Policies of Shanghai’ has played a promoting role. The real estate policy new measures introduced in February, through multidimensional efforts such as optimizing purchase restrictions and reducing transaction costs, effectively unblocked the replacement chain and released both rigid and improvement housing demand. As the policy continues to take effect, it injects liquidity into the market, helping Shanghai’s second-hand housing market steadily move into a healthy recovery track featuring a simultaneous rise in volume and prices,” Li Gen said.

Beyond the second-hand market, the enthusiasm in Shanghai’s new home market has also shown signs of a rebound.

According to monitoring data from the China Index Academy (Centaline?), in March this year, the transaction floor area of commercial residential housing in Shanghai (excluding affordable housing) was 276,000 square meters, up 88.7% month-over-month from February. The number of units sold was 2,270, up 101.9% month-over-month. Looking cumulatively, from January to March this year, the transaction floor area of commercial residential housing in Shanghai (excluding affordable housing) was 713,000 square meters, with 5,616 units sold.

At the policy level, since February this year, a series of supportive policies for Shanghai’s real estate market have been released in quick succession. In early February, a pilot program to acquire second-hand homes for use as affordable rental housing effectively stabilized market expectations. On February 25, the Shanghai “Seven Policies” were released, which reduced housing purchase restrictions, optimized provident-fund mortgage loans, and improved the property tax policy—lowering barriers to home buying across multiple dimensions and releasing reasonable housing demand.

Cheng Yu, Executive Deputy General Manager of the China Index Academy’s Shanghai operation, believes that judging from Shanghai’s market performance in March, policies have already begun to activate market demand: the second-hand market has warmed up first, and new-home transactions have also rebounded significantly. If the current market conditions can be sustained, Shanghai is expected to maintain high levels of activity during this “early spring” period.

“This year’s ‘early spring’ in Shanghai has plenty of substance, but this year’s ‘early spring’ is more structural—second-hand housing is stronger than new homes, not an all-around price increase. And from a national perspective, we may see a differentiated pattern where first-tier and strong second-tier cities bottom out and stabilize first, while third- and fourth-tier cities are still working through a bottoming-out process,” Zhang Bo said. “The current upturn is not simply a short-term policy pulse; it is a signal of core cities bottoming out and stabilizing. However, the national market has not yet reversed completely. Overall, the current market has formed a pattern led by core cities’ second-hand housing. The next step for the new-home market is expected to benefit from the unblocking of the second-hand replacement chain to achieve improvements.”

Cheng Yu emphasized that what needs to be watched is that market stabilization will remain a gradual process, and its sustainability depends on a substantive recovery of residents’ expectations for income and for housing prices. For real estate enterprises, amid the continued deepening of structural differentiation, they need to focus on core locations, stick to product-oriented thinking, and develop “good homes” that truly match market demand, so they can seize the initiative in the next market cycle.

(Cailian News, Reporter Wang Haichun)