"Vegetables are more expensive than meat" spreads, and the pig cycle bottom accelerates downward.

Source: Global Times

【Global Times Consumer Comprehensive Report】“Pork prices are lower than ginger and garlic,” this is a real scene recently played out in the vegetable market.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Business Society show: in mid-March, the national average price of live pigs fell below 11.05 yuan per kilogram, hitting a new low since June 2018; some external three-variant pig prices even dropped to 9.8 yuan per kilogram. On one side are fresh vegetables costing five or six yuan per jin, and on the other side are falling pork prices. The pig farming industry is experiencing the pains of the past few cycles.

Faced with pig prices entering the over-decline warning zone, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued a “hard constraint”: reducing the nationwide breeding sow inventory to around 36.5 million, a decrease of 7.8%. However, under the pressure of large pig enterprises competing for funds and changing consumer structures, this bottoming-out cycle’s clearance battle is far more complex than imagined.

Pig enterprises fight over the “6 yuan price”

Why are pig prices continuing to fall? The most direct logic is that supply is increasing while demand is shrinking simultaneously.

Data shows that although the breeding sow inventory at the end of 2025 has decreased from its peak, it still remains above a reasonable range of 39 million. More critically, the efficiency improvements in large-scale farming mean that even with fewer sows, actual pig supply remains high. In March, sample enterprises’ pig slaughter plans surged by 22.54% month-on-month