I just noticed an unpleasant moment on the Bitcoin chart — the MACD indicator has dropped into negative territory. And honestly, this is concerning. Since October, this signal has been working with alarming accuracy: every time the histogram turned red, the price sharply fell, and when it turned green, the rebounds were weak and quickly faded away.

For those who are not in the know: the MACD histogram shows the difference between the indicator lines. When it’s positive — a bullish impulse, when negative — a bearish one. The steepness of the slope indicates the strength of the movement. The indicator is good because it filters out noise and provides a clear picture of the trend. Right now, this histogram is screaming about bears.

Look at the history. In November, when the MACD crossed below zero, Bitcoin plummeted from $106 000 to $80 000. Then there was a rebound on a positive signal, but the growth stopped at $75 000. In January, the same pattern — a bearish signal, and the price fell almost to $60 000. Each time, sellers took the lead, and attempts by bulls to bounce back ended in failure.

Now the histogram is again in the red zone, although Bitcoin recently held above $100 000. Of course, the past does not guarantee the future, but when an indicator with such a track record gives a signal, ignoring it is dangerous. Traders should be on alert — it looks like sellers are taking the initiative once again.