It looks like the long-term stress period in the mining industry is nearing its end. An indicator called Hash Ribbon has started moving in a way that suggests a recovery signal for the first time in three months, and historically it often lines up with the timing of Bitcoin’s major bottom.

When mining companies are going through a tough period of operations, mining profits fall below operating costs, forcing inefficient mines to stop their machines and be driven into selling the BTC they hold. As a result, the hash rate declines and sell pressure continues—but apparently this time, that stretch was record-long. Judging from the turning point in late November, BTC first dropped to just below $60,000, and has since rebounded to the low $71,000s.

What’s interesting is that BTC is trading below the $66,000 average production cost. Historically, this level has been associated with deep bottom zones. Mining difficulty is also showing signs of recovery, which may mean miners’ confidence is coming back. Since 2011, mining capitulation has occurred nearly 20 times, but many of them have coincided with major lows such as January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022.

If this long-lasting mining pressure really is coming to an end this time, a price bottom may be close as well. Whether the indicator’s movement matches what’s actually happening in the market is something to watch closely, and the mining-related data ahead will be especially important.