I am seeing a very interesting pattern with Bitcoin and Fed meetings that deserves attention. Historically, we observe that BTC drops after almost all FOMC decisions, regardless of whether it's an increase, decrease, or rate hold. In 2025, there were 7 out of 8 meetings with negative returns in the following 48 hours.

The point is that Bitcoin entered this March meeting strongly, above $74 thousand, but now it’s quoted at $71.69k with a 1.79% drop in 24 hours. The data suggest that it’s not even the decision outcome that matters, it’s the event itself that causes this selling volatility on the news.

To make matters worse, the market is pricing in almost a 99% chance that the Fed will keep rates steady, with only a 25 basis point cut expected by the end of the year. With tensions in the Middle East, oil above $100 per barrel, and a weakening labor market, inflation is likely to stay high. This greatly limits the Fed’s flexibility for any more aggressive moves.

The risk now is real: strong Bitcoin on the chart, but with a history of selling after Fed news. If the pattern repeats, there could be short-term pressure even if the news doesn’t bring any surprises. It’s worth staying alert in the coming days.