Strait Blockade = Oil Prices Soar? Don't worry, this might be "Psychological Warfare 2.0"!

Seeing the "Hormuz blockade," many people's first reaction is: oil prices will explode.
But the question is—has it really been completely blocked?
Currently, it looks more like a "selective blockade":
Both creating a sense of tension and not fully cutting off the channel. Why? Because if it were completely sealed off, the consequences for all parties would be too great.
It's like a "false breakout" in the market: looks fierce, but is actually a test.
Looking again at the $6 billion matter—
Iran releases the news, the U.S. immediately denies it, essentially a collision of two narratives.
One wants to create "progress expectations," the other wants to suppress "over-optimism."
So you'll find that now, the core variable in the market isn't the facts, but "whose story is more believed."
Will there be results within 48 hours?
There might be, but more likely it's a "fuzzy outcome."
For example:
✔ makes a positive statement
✔ details are vague
✔ leaves room for interpretation
What does this mean for the market?
Continued volatility, not a one-sided trend.
So the strategy is simple:
Don't bet on the direction, bet on the volatility.
Because in this situation, the most stable thing isn't the trend, but the oscillation. #原油小幅上涨