Institutional Funds "Fighting Alone to Support the Market"—Structural Risks Amid $789 Million ETF Weekly Inflows

As of the week ending April 11, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $789 million, marking the highest weekly inflow since February. However, behind this seemingly prosperous data lies an overlooked structural risk: funds are highly concentrated among a single issuer. BlackRock's iBIT contributed nearly 80% of the weekly total inflow. Meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC continued to see outflows, with a pattern of 162 BTC exiting in a single day that has persisted for months.

The Bitcoin ETF currently holds 721,090 BTC, worth approximately $56.75 billion, indicating a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership. Bitcoin entering ETF products tends to be held long-term, continuously removing supply from the circulating market.

On the other side of the market, selling pressure is rapidly intensifying. According to CoinDesk, whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buyers to clear net sellers, with their holdings changing from about +200,000 BTC at the start of the year to -188,000 BTC now. Listed mining companies are cashing out under cost pressures, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Sovereign holders, such as Bhutan, have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.

The divergence pattern of "institutional continued buying and whale selling" is the main reason why Bitcoin prices can be supported in the $65,000–$73,000 range. Analysis indicates that the current "bottom" is mainly supported by a small number of institutional buyers, with the buyer base continuing to narrow. The future trend depends on whether institutional fund inflows can persist and push prices through key resistance levels.

Implications for investors: While institutional buying remains strong, if the trend of whale selling and miner cash-outs continues, the market could face a dangerous scenario of "buying alone in the trenches, while selling opens on all sides." Investors should closely monitor the sustainability of ETF fund flows and changes in whale address holdings. If ETF inflows slow significantly or turn into outflows in the coming week, Bitcoin could face substantial correction pressure.

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