Cardano's positioning is in an interesting situation. Over the past year, the average holder has a paper loss of 43%, and in the derivatives market, shorts have reached their highest level since June 2023. At first glance, it looks negative, but this combination has often led to the opposite move historically.

The MVRV ratio dropping to -43% indicates that holders who are prone to panic selling have already sold. Those remaining are the ones willing to hold. At the same time, shorts are overly crowded, so a slight upward move could trigger a short squeeze, potentially pushing prices even higher.

A similar situation occurred in mid-2023, when ADA surged 300% from around $0.25. Currently, it's trading around $0.24. However, the macro environment is unfavorable, and ecosystem growth is sluggish. So, the same outcome isn't guaranteed. But looking at the current positioning, there's a high chance that the next move could catch most people off guard.