Bitcoin Evening Outlook

Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a decline, with many people trying to buy the dip and go long at this level. However, this may be overly optimistic.

From a technical perspective, three consecutive shooting star candles above indicate a rejection of higher prices, showing that the bulls are clearly losing momentum. For a genuine rebound, the closing price must stay above 66,781. The three attempts to push higher have all failed to break this level, so a rebound is unlikely to happen.

Don't be misled by the mindset that "after a big drop, a rebound is due." In a trend, price action is less meaningful; the key is the position. Currently, a head-and-shoulders pattern has formed within the flag, with the neckline at 66,261. If broken, the hourly bearish structure will be confirmed, likely leading to a test of the previous low at 65,501.

If 65,501 is broken, the current consolidation zone will be invalidated, opening the downside space to the 64,196–63,038 range.

On the daily chart, the outlook is even less optimistic: the flag pattern has broken, the EMA20 support has been lost, and the MACD has fallen below zero, indicating that the bears are in full control. If the price cannot reclaim the flag pattern and regain the moving averages, the next target is the 62,210–59,888 previous low area.

Trading Suggestions

• Break above 66,883 with volume → Light long positions on the right side to catch the rebound

• Break below 66,288 with volume and fail to recover → Short positions on the right side following the trend
Strictly set stop-losses, avoid holding through losses, and do not try to guess the bottom.

• Hold above 66,781 on the 1H chart → Target 67,798–68,100

• Break below 66,303 on the 4H chart → Target 65,398–64,038

The overall strategy is mainly bearish. Only if the daily chart reclaims the flag pattern and moves back above the moving averages should a reversal to the upside be considered. Focus on changes in momentum.