Executive plans to cash out 800 million yuan, and the stock price plummets. Can the good days for storage leader Jiangbolong continue?

Less than two months after the performance forecast was released, Jiangbolong (301308.SZ) decided to reduce holdings by two executives.

On the evening of March 19, the leading A-share storage module company announced that board member Li Zhixiong, who holds 4.51% of the shares, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 2.4 million shares, while vice president Gao Xichun plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 22,900 shares. The total reduction by the two is less than 0.6% of the total share capital, and if calculated based on the closing price on March 20, it will amount to approximately 800 million yuan.

The timing of this cash-out is intriguing. On January 29, Jiangbolong delivered a performance forecast that can only be described as explosive—projecting 2025 revenue of 22.5 billion to 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%; the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 1.13 billion and 1.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 578.51% to 710.60%. The cyclical dividend brought about by rising storage prices has been directly reflected in profits.

Accompanying the surge in performance, from June last year to now, Jiangbolong’s stock price has increased by more than 360%.

However, price increases are not a one-way benefit. Since 2026, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology have tightened the supply of general-purpose DRAM and NAND while accelerating the shift of production capacity to high-value-added products like HBM. The adjustment in supply structure has continuously raised the price center for general-purpose storage chips.

At the same time, price pressures are being transmitted down the industry chain, and are manifesting at the end-user level as an increase in overall machine costs. Mobile phone and PC manufacturers partially offset this through price hikes, but the demand-side absorption capacity is limited.

For module manufacturers situated in the midstream of the industry chain, this change is closer to “squeeze”: rising upstream prices and tightening supply, while downstream demand weakens and shipments are under pressure. There is a coexistence of short-term profit recovery and medium to long-term uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, management has chosen to initiate a reduction in holdings after performance and stock prices have surged. The market’s focus is on whether this behavior is more based on personal financial arrangements or a cautious judgment of the industry cycle position and the company’s future profit elasticity. Will it affect investors’ expectations of the company’s medium to long-term value?

On March 20, a reporter from Time Weekly called Jiangbolong regarding these issues, but the other party stated “we do not accept phone interviews.” Subsequently, the reporter sent an interview request to their public email, but no response was received by the time of publication.

On March 20, Jiangbolong closed at 330.10 yuan per share, a sharp drop of 7.41%, with a total market value of 138.36 billion yuan.

The Midstream Business of Module Manufacturers

In the industry chain diagram, the division of labor in the storage industry is clear: upstream are original manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron that control wafer manufacturing; downstream are end brands such as mobile phones, PCs, and servers; and the midstream module manufacturers convert standardized storage wafers into storage module products and sell them.

Jiangbolong has a significant presence in the midstream module segment. According to data from TrendForce, the company is the second-largest independent memory company globally and the largest independent memory company in China.

Jiangbolong presents two business models externally: under the TCM model, it leverages its market position and long-term business relationships with major participants in the storage value chain to act as a reliable intermediary, directly connecting upstream wafer manufacturers with key downstream customers; in the PTM model, the company provides tailored storage solutions for important clients through full-stack customization services and support at all stages of product design, development, and production.

The essence of both models is to add services and integration capabilities on top of standardized products. However, whether this can lead to true pricing power is another matter. Jiangbolong stated during investor communications in mid-March that the prices of storage wafers and storage products are determined by the supply-demand structure of the storage industry, and the company closely monitors changes in supply and demand in the storage market and price trends, dynamically adjusting product pricing based on customer orders.

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, demand for AI and data centers will continue to exacerbate the global imbalance in memory supply and demand in the first quarter of 2026, increasing the original manufacturers’ bargaining power.

The logic behind original manufacturers holding pricing power is straightforward: on the supply side, significant expansion in HBM capacity is squeezing the output of general-purpose chips; on the demand side, the thirst for storage by AI servers continues to rise. Under this dual pressure, the bargaining space available to module manufacturers is quite limited.

“Module manufacturers that can truly establish bargaining power typically possess a combination of three types of capabilities,” said Lu Jing, managing partner and managing director of Sullivan’s China operations, to a reporter from Time Weekly. “First is the ability to define technology and products; module manufacturers need to be deeply involved in design and verification, possessing collaborative optimization capabilities with platform vendors and participating in product specification formulation; second is customer structure and binding capabilities, entering the supply chains of server manufacturers, cloud vendors, and top OEMs, forming stickiness through long-term certification and customized cooperation; third is scale and supply chain operation capability, reflected in the ability to obtain resources from upstream original manufacturers, manage inventory and price fluctuations, and hedge risks during cyclical fluctuations.”

“Manufacturers with multiple original manufacturer relationships and flexible procurement strategies are more likely to secure resources preferentially during tight supply and demand,” Lu added.

Jiangbolong is clearly moving in this direction. The company claims to have established deep, multi-faceted cooperative relationships with major global storage wafer manufacturers, and has signed long-term supply agreements (LTA) or memorandums of understanding (MOU), providing a solid foundation for storage wafer supply.

However, new variables are emerging. Recently, some long-term supply agreements signed by certain storage manufacturers have shifted from the previous “locking prices and quantities” to a mainstream structure of “locking quantities without locking prices.” “During a price increase cycle, those who are seizing production capacity do not lock in prices, only quantities,” an industry insider told a reporter from Time Weekly. “Now it’s basically dominated by ‘locking quantities without locking prices.’ Everyone’s core demand is to ensure the quantity first, with prices following the market.”

This means that during periods of dramatic price fluctuations, even if module manufacturers secure wafer allocations, they may not be able to lock in costs. What the agreements guarantee is the certainty of supply, not the certainty of price.

Tightening Supply, Pressured Demand

The contraction of shipments from downstream module manufacturers has already begun to show.

Recently, IDC Consulting reported that the overall situation in the global PC and smartphone markets has significantly worsened, and the current situation is even more severe than the most pessimistic scenario a few months ago.

For the PC market, the institution predicts that global shipments will decline by 11.3% in 2026, but due to an increase in average selling prices, revenue will grow by 1.6%. The market is expected to stabilize in 2027, with recovery postponed until 2028. The smartphone market situation is even more severe, with a projected global shipment decline of 12.9% in 2026 and a revenue decrease of 0.5%. A growth of 1.9% is expected in 2027, and a rebound of 5.2% in 2028.

“During the storage price increase cycle, the ability of different price segments of smartphones to absorb costs has shown significant differentiation,” pointed out the industry insider. For high-end devices, even if storage costs rise, manufacturers still have some room to absorb. However, for mid-range and low-end devices, the situation is entirely different.

Taking a 1,000-yuan phone as an example, if the storage cost originally at around 300 yuan rises to 700 yuan, the overall machine cost structure will be completely disrupted. If prices are not raised, there will be almost no profit; but if the selling price is increased from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan or even higher, it will directly impact demand, leading to a significant drop in sales. Under such constraints, mid-range and low-end manufacturers often have no choice but to contract: reducing production, placing cautious orders, or even adopting a “just-in-time procurement” strategy instead of locking in large long-term orders.

IDC Consulting also stated that budget smartphones and entry-level PCs have very thin profits and find it difficult to absorb quarter-on-quarter double-digit or even triple-digit increases in storage prices. Some manufacturers will exit related price segments or launch products with significantly lower specifications that may be priced higher. For price-sensitive consumers and small to medium-sized enterprises, this will lead to delayed equipment purchase plans and extended replacement cycles, further reducing unit shipment volumes.

In contrast to the weakness on the consumer side, storage original manufacturers are shifting more production capacity resources toward higher-profit AI-related products. For example, Samsung expects that the storage market will continue its strong growth trend in the first quarter of 2026 and will prioritize the development of high-value-added products in the AI sector. The company will increase the supply of HBM4 products in 2026, as well as the proportion of AI-related DDR5 and GDDR7 products.

Lu Jing stated that the key for module manufacturers is to upgrade product structures and restructure supply chain strategies. From the perspective of product structure, the core is to migrate toward high-value-added and structural demand; from the perspective of supply chain strategy, the key is to enhance flexibility and the ability to withstand fluctuations.