Oil Price Trend | Macquarie Expects Brent Oil Floor at 85-@E1@90 USD After Tensions Ease

President Trump suddenly announced a five-day delay in the attack on Iranian power plants, causing international oil prices to drop more than 10%. Macquarie global energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi and his team stated in a report that after news of a potential easing of Middle East tensions was announced, Brent crude’s bottom price was between $85 and $90 per barrel; however, before the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices could rebound to around $110.

Macquarie pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude prices could rise to $150 per barrel by the end of April, and refined oil prices are expected to be twice the pre-war levels. The total oil transported through the strait is estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day, far below the normal level of 15 million barrels per day, indicating a supply gap of 13.5 million barrels daily.

Macquarie stated that there are six measures to address supply losses, including releasing strategic petroleum reserves; increasing global shipments from large offshore and onshore projects by 500,000 barrels per day this year; OPEC releasing oil stored outside the region; rerouting via pipelines such as the Saudi East-West Pipeline; reducing refinery operations due to crude oil shortages, estimated at 3.5 million barrels per day; and releasing up to 75 million barrels of crude oil from floating storage.

Earlier, Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran had conducted very good and productive talks over the past two days, and he has instructed a five-day suspension of all military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy facilities. He said Iran is very eager to reach an agreement, and the US’s willingness is also consistent, believing that an agreement could be reached within five days or even sooner. However, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources, Iran and the US have not communicated directly nor through mediators.