Commercial Space "Five Little Dragons": Who is China's SpaceX?

In 2026, a new trend is emerging in commercial space stations.

The world’s largest IPO ever—SpaceX going public—is getting closer. Its latest valuation has already reached $1.75 trillion, surpassing Meta and approaching Amazon.

Meanwhile, China’s “SpaceX-like” companies and related industry chains are also experiencing a capital frenzy. From late last year to early this year, the SynTao Commercial Space sector once rose over 40% in 12 trading days. Although it then experienced a rollercoaster correction, the year-to-date increase remains close to 10%.

The primary market is equally hot. According to IT Juzi, in 2025, there were 67 commercial space financing deals, nearly double that of 2024. Entering 2026, private Chinese space companies like Interstellar Glory completed 5.037 billion yuan in funding, breaking China’s private rocket single-round financing record.

“Before the Spring Festival, Interstellar Glory’s valuation in the primary market was just over 10 billion yuan. After the holiday, it jumped to 16 billion yuan. Even so, demand for shares is still high,” Li Li, an investor involved in late-stage financing of several private rocket companies, told Dingjiao One.

In the commercial space industry chain, launch vehicles are the most fundamental link. Only by launching satellites into space and completing network formation can sustained commercial value be generated. Therefore, private rocket companies have become the focus of attention in the entire commercial space sector. Moreover, they are the most similar to SpaceX in business model potential.

Currently, five Chinese private rocket companies have clear IPO processes: LandSpace, Tianbing Technology, CAS Space, Interstellar Glory, and GalaxySpace. Their combined valuation exceeds 100 billion yuan.

LandSpace has entered the STAR Market listing review process, with the current status “Inquiry”; the other four are still in the listing guidance stage. Among them, CAS Space is the fastest, having completed guidance; Tianbing Technology, Interstellar Glory, and GalaxySpace are still in filing guidance.

Some aggressive investors in the primary market even believe that the total valuation cap of these five companies should equal that of SpaceX.

But reality isn’t so optimistic. LandSpace, which has submitted its IPO prospectus, has accumulated losses of over 3.5 billion yuan from 2022 to mid-2025. In its latest launch, the Zhuque-3 successfully reached orbit, but the primary recovery failed.

Amid the disparity between capital frenzy and fundamentals, who will be the first Chinese version of SpaceX to emerge?

“China Starlink” takes off, with private rocket “Five Little Dragons” leading the beneficiaries

SpaceX has charted a successful commercialization path: using reusable rocket technology to significantly reduce launch costs, and generating continuous cash flow through Starlink services and operations.

This business cycle has two keywords: reusability and Starlink.

Reusable rockets refer to rockets where the first stage can return to land and be reused after launch, lowering the cost per launch. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 has achieved multiple reuse.

Starlink is SpaceX’s low Earth orbit satellite internet system, composed of thousands or even tens of thousands of satellites forming a communication network, providing broadband internet worldwide. This business not only brings ongoing subscription revenue but also creates stable demand for rocket launches.

In simple terms, reusability addresses cost issues, while Starlink addresses demand.

However, by this standard, before 2025, Chinese commercial space and private rocket companies have lacked in both areas.

“Throughout 2023 and 2024, the primary market sentiment in commercial space was generally pessimistic,” a commercial space investor told Dingjiao One. “On one hand, reusable technology hasn’t been realized; on the other, the scale-up of ‘China Starlink’ has been slow.”

According to ChinaSat “GW Constellation” and Yuanxin Satellite’s “Qianfan Constellation” plans, 12,992 and 15,000 low Earth orbit satellites are scheduled to achieve global coverage by 2027, with the Chinese version of Starlink completing network formation by 2030.

But until December 2025, the total number of satellites in orbit for GW and Qianfan was only 244, less than 1% of the overall plan.

The turning point came at the end of 2025.

The ITU official website shows that in December of that year, China submitted a one-time frequency and orbital resource request for 203,000 satellites, setting a record for the largest international orbital resource application at that time. Public data indicates that the maximum capacity of low Earth orbit is about 175,000 satellites, but the total number of satellites declared by countries worldwide to the ITU has already far exceeded this limit.

Following the “first-come, first-served” rule, the scramble for orbital resources has raised the bar for China’s “Starlink” deployment.

In this clear demand for satellite launches, private rocket companies in the industry chain are the first to benefit.

Li Li describes it this way: “Before the Spring Festival this year, the five private rocket companies queuing for IPO had no valuation logic at all—if they named a price, someone would buy.”

According to Hurun Global Unicorn List, as of January 1, 2025, the total valuation of China’s private rocket “Five Little Dragons” was about 67.5 billion yuan, with LandSpace leading at 20 billion yuan.

Combining information from multiple investors involved in private space financing, the post-investment total valuation of these five companies had already reached at least 100 billion yuan by late February, an increase of over 32.5 billion yuan in just over a year, averaging a valuation increase of 6.5 billion yuan per company.

Li Li told Dingjiao One that the most optimistic investors even believe that as long as the total valuation of these five companies does not exceed SpaceX’s $1.5 trillion, they are not overvalued. (Note: Before the Spring Festival, SpaceX’s highest reported valuation was $1.5 trillion.)

It is worth noting that in the latest post-investment valuations, since LandSpace has no share outflow in the primary market, its valuation remains relatively stable. Additionally, Dingjiao One learned that Interstellar Glory’s new pre-money valuation has soared to 23.5 billion yuan, more than 50% higher than its previous post-money valuation.

In terms of technical routes and business models, these five companies differ slightly. LandSpace and Tianbing Technology adopt pure liquid rocket paths, while the other three use a combination of liquid and solid rockets.

Looking at the pure liquid rocket camp, LandSpace is the highest valued and fastest progressing toward listing. Its core products are the “Zhuque” series of liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicles, including the medium-lift Zhuque-2 and the large, reusable Zhuque-3.

To date, its liquid rockets have been launched 7 times, with 2 failures and 5 successes.

[Image source / LandSpace IPO prospectus]

Another pure liquid camp company, Tianbing Technology, currently operates the “Tianlong-2” LOX-kerosene launch vehicle, with one launch successful as of December 28, 2025. It is developing the “Tianlong-3” LOX-kerosene rocket, which has completed its power system testing.

Liquid rockets have advantages such as high thrust, good controllability, and multiple ignitions, and are currently the only option for reusable rockets like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Starship. However, they are usually large, and if reusability isn’t considered, the cost per launch is high.

In comparison, solid rockets are more mature technically, with lower manufacturing costs and technical barriers. Many early commercial rockets used solid propulsion as their first stage. But they have clear limitations: lower thrust, poor controllability, and inability to support large-scale satellite deployment or rocket recovery.

CAS Space’s “Lijian-1” is a solid rocket, while its upcoming “Lijian-2” uses LOX-kerosene technology.

Interstellar Glory’s “Hyperbola-1” and “Ganymede-1” are also solid rockets, with 8 launches (4 successes) and 22 launches (20 successes), respectively. Both companies are also developing liquid rockets.

Multiple investors told Dingjiao One that Interstellar Glory has recently abandoned solid rockets in favor of pure liquid rockets.

This reflects a consensus in the industry: liquid rockets, due to their reusability, are recognized as the future technology route. Solid rockets currently mainly handle launch orders, providing cash flow, and in the future could be used for flexible constellation replenishment, emergency, scattered, or special missions.

Beyond these five leading private rocket companies in the IPO pipeline, second-tier companies like Oriental Space and Deep Blue Aerospace are also active in capital markets.

Oriental Space has announced it is actively preparing for IPO, considering listing on the STAR Market; Deep Blue Aerospace’s valuation has reached 7 billion yuan, approaching the first tier.

The Chinese version of SpaceX is likely to emerge from among these companies.

Do you understand the math behind commercial space launches?

The capital market bets on future imagination, but in the face of business realities, even the most optimistic investors need to sit down and do the math first.

From an industry chain perspective, launch vehicles are the most critical segment, connecting upstream raw materials to downstream satellite applications. It is a highly technical, capital-intensive, and high-barrier sector.

[Image source / LandSpace IPO prospectus]

Most private rocket companies cover upstream system control and midstream rocket R&D, assembly, and launch services.

CICC research reports show that launch costs are the main expense in commercial space. In typical low Earth orbit constellation construction, launch costs account for 30%-40% of total costs.

Within the entire launch process, engine costs are the largest component. For example, SpaceX’s Falcon 9’s first-stage engine accounts for 54.3% of the first-stage cost, and the airframe structure accounts for 23.5%. This means that if first-stage recovery and reuse are achieved, nearly 80% of costs can be saved.

Looking at the entire rocket, a typical launch vehicle includes the first stage (providing maximum thrust at liftoff), the second stage (accelerating satellites into the desired orbit), and the fairing (protective shell for satellites, discarded after entering space). According to Yijian Securities, with a non-reusable Falcon 9 launch cost of $50 million, the first stage accounts for 60%, the second stage 20%. If the first stage is recovered and reused five times, the cost per launch could drop to about $13 million, saving 74%.

Thus, the key to the economic viability of the entire industry chain is the reusability of the first stage.

But achieving this is not easy.

The difficulty lies in the need for the rocket to withstand high-speed flight, high temperatures during reentry, and still perform precise second ignition and controlled landing. This involves complex propulsion control, attitude control, thermal protection, and navigation algorithms.

SpaceX took 13 years—from 2002 to 2015—to successfully recover the Falcon 9 first stage after multiple failures beforehand.

In contrast, Chinese private rocket companies are still in the technology investment phase. While some, like LandSpace, have launched satellites into orbit, none have yet achieved successful first-stage recovery, and no significant economic benefits have been realized.

For example, LandSpace’s detailed operational data shows net losses of 821 million yuan in 2022, 1.216 billion yuan in 2023, 916 million yuan in early 2024, and 635 million yuan in mid-2025.

In the first half of 2025, LandSpace’s revenue was 36.4 million yuan, with 35.69 million yuan from “single-launch rocket services,” accounting for 97.96%. Operating costs reached 155 million yuan, already resulting in over 100 million yuan in losses without considering operating expenses.

Adding high R&D and administrative costs, the loss expanded to over 600 million yuan.

LandSpace needs to achieve repeated recovery and reuse similar to Falcon 9 to reduce launch costs by over 70%, which is essential for breaking even.

Therefore, only when private rocket companies like LandSpace can achieve cost-effective launches will they be able to perform high-frequency, low-cost satellite constellation deployment, spreading out expenses and maintaining sustainable operations.

However, in terms of technological maturity, China’s commercial space industry still has a long way to go before achieving large-scale rocket reusability.

Who will be the first Chinese version of SpaceX?

Once the math of rocket launch and recovery is clear, the next step is the valuation imagination in commercial space.

According to China Galaxy Securities, the market space for manufacturing and launching China’s GW and Qianfan constellations in 2026 is estimated at about 26.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 49%. The GW launch market is about 9.6 billion yuan, and Qianfan’s launch market is 3.5 billion yuan.

One commercial space investor told Dingjiao One that current valuations of private rocket companies mainly depend on two factors.

First is launch cost. The industry consensus is that when satellite launch costs drop to 20,000–30,000 yuan per kilogram, it will become a watershed for commercial space. This cost level determines whether a company can continuously, efficiently, and cost-effectively execute “China Starlink” launches.

But cost isn’t the only valuation factor. The second is the order share each private rocket company can secure in the future “China Starlink” network, which combines the “China Starlink” and Yuanxin Satellite’s plans.

The investor added, “Most future launch orders for ‘China Starlink’ will likely come from the national space agency. Ideally, private companies could capture up to 50% of the market, but to be a true leader, they need 20–30%.”

Based on this, the remaining market space is limited for many private rocket firms. He believes, “In the future, no more than five private rockets will survive.”

From a valuation perspective, companies like LandSpace and Tianbing Technology, which pursue pure liquid rocket paths, currently have some advantages.

LandSpace’s Zhuque-2 series of LOX-methane medium-lift rockets has become China’s first private liquid-fuel rocket to enter mass production and commercial use; its Zhuque-3 large, reusable LOX-methane rocket has also successfully maidened.

It is also the most advanced in listing progress. For highly R&D-dependent commercial space companies, going public not only opens financing channels but also provides stable, ongoing funding.

The STAR Market’s previous guidelines for listing commercial rocket companies require that the main business or products be in continuous R&D or technological achievement transformation stages, with at least one successful launch of a reusable large or medium-sized rocket.

Currently, only LandSpace meets this technical threshold.

Tianbing Technology is also accelerating its technological development. In November 2025, it completed all ground verification tests for its “One Rocket 36 Satellites” large liquid vehicle. Its “Tianlong-3” is currently the first domestic commercial large reusable liquid rocket with a capacity exceeding 20 tons.

While the pure liquid rocket camp has advantages, the key to winning is who can first achieve rocket reusability. Reusable tech requires long-term, high-capital investment. The first to go public and build more “ammunition” will have a competitive edge.

However, amid the hot primary market, concerns about overly high valuations are also rising, mainly focusing on two points.

Li Li told Dingjiao One that SpaceX’s Starlink achieved high valuation mainly because the US’s communication infrastructure is underdeveloped, with vast areas and sparse population, limiting 5G coverage. In China, with well-developed 5G infrastructure, the actual value of “China Starlink” remains to be seen.

The other concern is doubts about large LOX-based reusable rockets.

Some industry insiders believe that China, with its cost advantages in the supply chain, doesn’t necessarily need to follow SpaceX’s large liquid rocket reusability route. Using lower-cost solid rockets for frequent launches of constellation satellites could also balance costs.

But these doubts are being overshadowed by rising valuations. Whether believers or skeptics, no one wants to exit early in this capital frenzy, all waiting for the birth of “China’s SpaceX.”

*Li Li is a pseudonym at the interviewee’s request.