Goldman Sachs Raises Crude Oil Price Expectations as Hormuz Strait Conflict Continues to Escalate

Goldman Sachs raises its oil price forecast for this year, citing a long-term disruption of energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which the firm calls “the most severe oil supply shock in history.”

The bank expects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in 2026, up from its previous forecast of $77. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, is expected to be $79 per barrel, up from $72.

The firm assumes that before April 10, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at only 5% of normal levels, then gradually recover over the following month.

In the spot market, the impact of the supply disruption remains mainly regional, with shipping volumes in Asia significantly declining and supply remaining tight—this region is typically a major destination for oil and gas imports through the Strait of Hormuz, with a particular reliance on heavy fuels like jet fuel.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the Middle East’s daily crude oil production loss will peak at 17 million barrels, up from about 11 million barrels; once capacity is restored, it will fully rebound within four weeks, with total losses slightly exceeding 800 million barrels.

The bank forecasts Brent crude prices will reach $110 per barrel in March and April, up from its previous estimate of $98, which is about 62% higher than the average for all of 2025.

The March forecast has been revised down from $110 to $105, implying that oil prices will remain slightly above $120 for the rest of this month; meanwhile, the April forecast has been raised from $85 to $115. Goldman Sachs expects the average WTI price to be $98 in March and $105 in April, noting that the market is pricing in the possibility that strong U.S. exports will keep the spread between WTI and Brent high.