Retail gasoline prices see "five consecutive increases," government takes temporary regulatory measures to limit price hikes

On March 23 at 24:00, domestic retail prices of refined oil experienced five consecutive increases, marking the sixth price adjustment this year. Unlike previous adjustments, to mitigate the recent abnormal rise in international oil prices and its impact on the domestic market, the government has implemented temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices while maintaining the current pricing mechanism framework.

The government has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices

According to a press release from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), based on the current pricing mechanism, as of March 23, the domestic prices for gasoline and diesel (standard grade) should each increase by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton, respectively. After regulation, the actual increases are 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan.

The press release states that since the last price adjustment on March 9, affected by escalating conflicts between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, especially with Middle Eastern oil reaching record highs. To slow the abnormal rise in international oil prices, reduce the burden on downstream users, ensure stable economic operation, and safeguard social livelihoods, the government has taken temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices while maintaining the current price mechanism framework.

The NDRC will guide refined oil producers and sellers to organize production and transportation to ensure market supply, and will cooperate with relevant departments to strengthen market supervision and inspection, strictly investigate illegal activities such as non-compliance with national pricing policies, and effectively maintain market order and protect consumer interests.

It is estimated that after this price adjustment, the retail prices per liter will increase by 0.91 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.96 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.95 yuan for zero diesel. Following this adjustment, the maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Beijing will be 10,670 yuan and 9,600 yuan per ton, respectively. The 2026 refined oil price adjustment will show a pattern of “five increases, zero decreases, and one pause,” with domestic gasoline and diesel prices rising by a total of 2,320 yuan and 2,235 yuan per ton this year.

The next window for refined oil price adjustment is at 24:00 on April 7. Market analysts point out that looking ahead, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, some oil-producing countries in the Gulf region have been forced to cut production, and the risks to crude oil supply continue to increase, providing ongoing support for oil prices. The probability of an upward adjustment in the next price cycle remains high.

Public travel intentions strengthen, unit operating rates recover, and refined oil demand is expected to improve

Due to tightening supply in the Middle Eastern raw material markets, both retail and wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have continued to rise during this cycle. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, market expectations for higher oil prices and increased retail prices for gasoline and diesel are deepening, and domestic wholesale refined oil markets are showing a reluctance to sell.

Additionally, as temperatures rise nationwide and during intensive holiday periods, public travel intentions are increasing. After the Two Sessions, the operating rates of units using diesel have gradually recovered, and demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to improve. Overall, the domestic refined oil market is tightening, with short-term market quotes remaining firm, and transactions mainly driven by immediate needs.

Liu Ting, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that the ongoing geopolitical conflicts between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, along with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, have caused a supply gap in international crude oil, leading to rising oil prices. Brent crude has stabilized above $100 per barrel, and domestic concerns over crude oil shortages persist. State-owned large enterprises are focusing on supply security for domestic retail, and wholesale prices of refined oil are rising sharply.

Xu Peng, an analyst at Jincheng Innovation, noted that domestically, affected by geopolitical conflicts, crude oil supply is tightening. Some domestic refineries are reducing their operating rates, and domestic refined oil output may decline. Demand remains stable with private vehicle travel, and overall consumption of gasoline is steady. As temperatures warm, industries such as outdoor construction and infrastructure are increasing their operations, and spring plowing is progressing smoothly, leading to a positive outlook for diesel demand. Additionally, major refineries are mainly maintaining price support policies this month, with limited enthusiasm for shipments. Under favorable factors, after the retail price increase on March 23, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to continue rising.

Geopolitical risks persist; if tensions ease, oil prices could reverse within days

During this pricing cycle, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, international crude oil prices surged. As of last Friday, Brent crude was at $112.19 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains, with a weekly increase of 8.8%. U.S. WTI crude April contracts closed up 2.3% at $98.32 per barrel, though due to contract rollover effects, the weekly decline was 0.4%.

Recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest forecast for Brent crude spot prices in the 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). According to the data, EIA expects Brent crude prices to stay above $95 per barrel for the next two months, then fall below $80 in the third quarter of 2026, reaching about $70 by year-end. The forecast for 2026 averages $79 per barrel, and for 2027, $64 per barrel.

Guotai Junan Futures Chief Analyst of Energy and Chemicals, Huang Liunan, pointed out that recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) launched a strategic reserve release of 426 million barrels, but with serious geographic mismatches—most of the release occurring in Europe and North America, while Asia, where oil shortages are most severe, received limited supplies. Asian refiners are actively seeking alternative oil sources to ensure supply in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Dubai crude, a Middle Eastern benchmark, has seen liquidity dry up due to physical delivery restrictions, with prices soaring to $167 per barrel and a near $50 per barrel spread with Brent, causing structural distortions in market pricing mechanisms.

CITIC Futures crude oil researcher An Jing pointed out that Gulf countries, due to limited storage capacity, have been forced to cut production by 7 to 10 million barrels per day, which accounts for 7%–10% of global output. Restarting capacity will take days to weeks. Since idle capacity is concentrated in Gulf countries and U.S. shale oil, as a marginal supply source, cannot respond quickly to increased demand, and with limited strategic reserves and floating storage, the ongoing Strait blockade poses a risk of continued price increases. However, if tensions ease and navigation through the Strait resumes, oil prices could reverse within days.