Trump's TACO: The Strategic Game Behind It — Emergency Meetings Between Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Other Nations

From Threats of Bombing to Suddenly “Pressing the Pause Button,” Trump’s “TACO” May Be Behind a Secret Diplomatic and Information Game Spanning Multiple Middle Eastern Countries

According to CCTV News, on March 21 local time, U.S. President Trump demanded Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the U.S. would strike and destroy various power plants inside Iran. However, just two days later (March 23), the White House’s stance reversed again. Trump said he had engaged in dialogue with Iran and would suspend strikes on its energy facilities for five days. “The U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive talks over the past two days.”

Behind this dramatic shift lies a meeting before dawn in Riyadh. According to the latest media analysis, the sudden change in U.S. policy toward Iran is not a single decision but the result of “multiple rounds of closed-door diplomatic consultations.”

Middle Eastern Secret Diplomacy: Egypt’s Intelligence “Riyadh Moment”

Reports indicate that last Thursday early morning, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss ways to find a “diplomatic exit” from the Iran conflict.

However, an Arab official involved in the talks stated bluntly, “The biggest problem is that there is no one on the Iranian side to talk to.” Previously, Israel had killed high-level Iranian security figures, including Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani, reducing potential negotiation partners.

In this context, Egypt’s intelligence system has become a key variable. Several officials revealed that Egypt had “successfully established communication channels with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” Reports say that as Iran’s most powerful political and military entity, the IRGC has substantial “blockade rights” over the Strait of Hormuz.

Egypt proposed a core suggestion—“a five-day suspension of hostilities,” aimed at building initial trust for a ceasefire agreement.

This incremental information was quickly relayed back to Florida through intermediaries. After learning of this potential channel, Trump showed strong interest in negotiations. According to a senior official, Trump saw this as a possible opportunity to “package the conflict as a victory and withdraw.”

As Riyadh diplomatic information reached the White House, Trump quickly changed his stance, announcing a “five-day pause” on strikes and expressing willingness to pursue a diplomatic solution.

However, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated, “These are sensitive discussions, and the U.S. will not negotiate through the media. The situation is constantly evolving, and speculation about meetings should not be considered as outcomes before an official announcement.”

Dispute Over the “Pricing Power” of the Strait of Hormuz: Neutral Regulation or Transit Fees

Reports also focus on the transit arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz—an important waterway that typically carries about 20% of global oil exports.

The article shows that Arab leaders proposed that a “neutral committee” oversee the strait to ensure the safe passage of all ships; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that Iran should charge transit fees for ships passing through, similar to Egypt’s current charges for the Suez Canal.

Gulf Cooperation Council officials oppose a “fee-based/Iranians dominate” plan; Saudi Arabia stated it would not allow Iran to dominate operations in the strait, fearing such arrangements would entrench Iran’s influence over Gulf energy exports for many years.

Face-to-Face Talks? Meeting Possibly Later This Week?

According to reports, recent diplomatic activities have prompted preliminary discussions about holding in-person U.S.-Iran meetings later this week in Pakistan or Turkey, but arrangements are not yet finalized.

The report mentions that U.S. representatives might include Special Envoy Steve Witterkoff and Kushner; if an agreement is close, Vice President Vance might also attend. Iran may send Foreign Minister Abas Araghchi, but Iranian officials are not keen to repeat the failed negotiations between Araghchi and Witterkoff.

Meanwhile, Xinhua News Agency, citing U.S. media, reports that several coordinating countries are trying to arrange talks between Kalibaf, Witterkoff, Kushner, and Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan, possibly later this week.

Goldman Sachs Perspective: Trump’s “Escalate to De-Escalate” Mode

Regarding Trump’s sudden shift, Wall Street institutions are not surprised. Goldman Sachs strategist Rich Privorotsky noted in a report to investors that the past 72 hours followed a very familiar “Trump script”: escalate then de-escalate.

Privorotsky explained this logic:

2. Friday: Release signals of “gradual de-escalation” or “war may end soon” to test market reactions.

3. Saturday: Suddenly escalate to extreme ultimatums (such as 48-hour strikes on power facilities), pushing pressure to the limit.

4. Monday: Offer a “way out” before the deadline—by suspending strikes to induce concessions.

This classic “TACO” operation once again sent global financial markets on a rollercoaster. The markets, which had been bleak, experienced a deep V reversal on the 23rd: the S&P 500 hit its biggest gain since February, and the Dow surged over 1,000 points intraday. Oil markets also saw a “bloodbath,” with Brent crude plunging 11% from over $110 in just a few hours.

“This mirrors the scripts from 2017-18 North Korea tensions, the Soleimani crisis in 2020, and the China tariff battles,” Privorotsky wrote. “First release the willingness to withdraw, then maximize leverage to extract a compromise that can be packaged as a ‘win.’”

However, Goldman Sachs warns that this time the situation may be more complex. Iran has seen through this repeated pattern, and the decentralized command structure of the IRGC makes structural negotiations particularly difficult.

Iran: Denials, Punishments, and Fake News

Amid Wall Street’s frenzy over Trump’s tweets, Iran quickly responded to Trump’s statements.

According to Xinhua, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Kalibaf explicitly stated on social media Monday that “the ‘secret negotiations’ rumor is completely false and aimed at manipulating markets and sowing division.” He strongly declared, “The Iranian people demand severe punishment for the aggressors. The so-called optimism is just to help the U.S. and Israel get out of their quagmire.”

CCTV News cited Iranian media analysis, suggesting that Trump’s five-day pause has four motivations:

2. Price manipulation: Forcibly suppress rising oil prices through psychological expectations.

3. Delaying tactic: Gaining time for U.S. military reinforcements in the Middle East.

4. Tracking movements: Using negotiations as a pretext to lure Iranian leaders into the open, preparing for potential “decapitation” operations.

5. Internal sabotage: Using negotiation rumors to create divisions between pro-Western factions and hardline military within Iran.

Iran’s UN delegation even stated that Trump’s withdrawal from attack was due to Iran’s “strong and credible deterrent retaliation,” not any negotiations.

Additionally, regarding rumors that U.S. forces might seize Halek Island to force open the strait, experts cited by CCTV offered a pessimistic view. Halek Island accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports but is only 25 km from the Iranian coast. U.S. amphibious or airborne operations woul