Mike Novogratz: Why Quantum Computing Fears Are Overblown for Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is pushing back hard against the growing narrative that quantum computing poses an existential threat to Bitcoin. During his company’s recent earnings call, Novogratz made it clear that while quantum technology is real, it’s being weaponized as an excuse by profit-takers looking to justify exit strategies in the current market cycle. His stance challenges the escalating alarm that’s rippling through Wall Street, where major institutions are quietly reassessing their cryptocurrency exposure due to quantum-related concerns.

“Quantum has been the big excuse for people,” Novogratz stated bluntly. While he acknowledges the technology will eventually pose challenges for the broader world, he remains confident that Bitcoin’s architecture can evolve to meet the challenge. “I think in the long run, quantum will not be a huge issue for crypto. It’ll be a big issue for the world, but crypto, Bitcoin especially, will be able to handle it.”

The Quantum Computing Debate Gains Momentum—But the Timeline Remains Distant

The quantum computing threat has become increasingly visible in institutional decision-making. Just recently, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, made headlines by removing a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing quantum risk as a primary concern. This decision reflected a broader anxiety spreading through traditional finance about encryption vulnerabilities that quantum machines could theoretically exploit.

Yet there’s a significant timing issue being overlooked in this debate. Bitcoin developers and security experts have consistently emphasized that genuinely dangerous quantum computers remain decades away from reality. While Coinbase has formally acknowledged quantum computing as a potential long-term threat to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and the Ethereum Foundation recently elevated post-quantum security to a strategic priority by creating a dedicated Post-Quantum team, the actual threat window remains distant and largely theoretical.

Novogratz’s position aligns with this technical reality. As quantum technology approaches maturity, he argues, the Bitcoin protocol will have ample time to adapt. “As we get closer to quantum, we’re gonna get closer to quantum resistant. And you will have the Bitcoin code changed in time,” he explained. This adaptive capacity—Bitcoin’s ability to implement protocol upgrades in response to emerging threats—remains one of the network’s core strengths.

When “OGs” Stop Believing: The Breakdown of Bitcoin’s HODL Religion

Beyond quantum fears, Novogratz touched on another psychological shift underway in Bitcoin’s long-term holder community. A significant turning point came in 2025, when Galaxy facilitated a $9 billion sale of over 80,000 Bitcoin from a Satoshi-era investor. While initially framed as estate planning, the transaction sparked broader questions: Are Bitcoin’s earliest believers finally losing faith?

Novogratz believes the answer is yes—at least partially. The earlier narrative around Bitcoin’s community centered on “HODLing,” a quasi-religious commitment to holding through volatility and market cycles. But something has shifted. “There were a tremendous amount of these religious believers in this concept of HODLing and not letting go of your bitcoin,” Novogratz noted. “And somehow that fever broke, and you started seeing some selling.”

Once this process begins, it creates a self-reinforcing cycle. Novogratz observed that initial profit-taking by early adopters typically triggers a cascade. “Then you sell a little more, you sell a little more, and it is so hard to HODL.” The psychological resistance that once anchored long-term holder conviction appears to be weakening, potentially reshaping the market’s supply dynamics as these original believers gradually exit positions.

Bitcoin Price Action: Holding Gains Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Recent price movement reflects the complex interplay of these underlying currents. Bitcoin climbed above $70,000 and retained most gains following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. As of late March 2026, BTC trades around $70.46K with a 24-hour gain of approximately 2.97%.

The broader altcoin market responded positively to the reduced geopolitical tension, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin each gaining roughly 5%. Crypto-linked mining stocks rallied in tandem with broader equity market strength, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both advancing around 1.2%.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on whether oil prices and Hormuz Strait shipping conditions stabilize. A stabilization scenario could support Bitcoin testing resistance levels in the $74,000 to $76,000 range. Conversely, escalating geopolitical tensions could pull prices back toward the mid-$60,000s, neutralizing recent gains. The cryptocurrency’s price action, in other words, remains tethered to macro factors beyond the industry itself.