More Insider Trading? $600 Million Crude Oil Futures Contracts Dumped Before Trump's Conciliatory Remarks

Before the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, Trump suddenly announced on social media that he would suspend attacks on Iran’s energy facilities for five days and claimed to have had productive talks with Iran. Following this statement, European and American stock markets immediately rose, international oil prices fell, and precious metals quickly rebounded.

However, after the market suddenly reversed, some warned of insider trading. Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, approximately 6,200 Brent crude and WTI futures contracts changed hands, just 15 minutes before Trump’s statement.

Rough estimates suggest these oil trades had a nominal value of about $580 million. As trading volume in Brent and WTI crude oil surged, futures prices tracking the S&P 500 index also rose rapidly, with trading volume significantly increasing.

Five minutes before Trump announced the halt to the Iran attack, someone went long $1.5 billion worth of S&P 500 futures and sold $192 million worth of oil futures. The number of such orders during this period was four to six times higher than other orders.

All signs are reminiscent of the prediction market before the U.S. raid on Venezuela to arrest President Maduro, where mysterious accounts made precise bets on Maduro’s ousting time and profited, turning about $30,000 into $436,759.61, a 12.4-fold return.

A market strategist at an American brokerage firm commented on Monday’s trading, saying it’s currently difficult to prove causality, but people have to wonder who was so actively selling futures 15 minutes before Trump’s statement.

Several hedge funds pointed out that this is one of many cases in recent months where large trades were made before the U.S. government officially announced news.

A trader at a large hedge fund said their energy advisor recently noticed several large trades, which they believed were unusually well-timed. Another portfolio manager said a series of precise large trades left investors quite frustrated.

Traders noted that there was no major data release or Federal Reserve speech at the time, so there was no reason to rush into trades. On a day without significant events, these trades were unusually large. There’s no doubt someone “jumped the gun.”

After Iran’s official statement denying any negotiations with the U.S., U.S. stocks pulled back. The trader further analyzed that false information is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and to try to escape the quagmire caused by the U.S. and Israel.