Trump, in the end, many of his moves look like even he doesn't know what he's saying, leaving the market equally confused. But don't mistake him for an idiot—this type of person is actually a classic example of "the wise appear foolish."

It's more like playing GTO poker in Texas. When you're supposed to bluff, you have to let people catch you a few times so the market believes your value bets are genuine later. Otherwise, no one will call your hand.

So the key has never been what's said, but how the money moves.

If war keeps escalating but oil prices keep getting crushed, it means the market doesn't take it seriously at all. The sentiment is fake.

Conversely, even if both sides keep talking about ceasefire every day, but oil prices skyrocket, it's simple—the ceasefire is just for your ears. Reality is completely different.

Don't listen to the stories in trading. Just watch the price.