【Jiantou Precious Metals】Precious Metals Weekly Report | Liquidity Concerns Spread, Precious Metals Overall Decline

(Source: CFC Metal Research)

CFC Metal Research

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Author | Wang Yanqing, CITIC Construction Investment Futures Research and Development Department

Futures trading consultation qualification: Securities Regulatory License [2011] No. 1461

Report completion date | March 22, 2026

This week, precious metals continued to decline, with significant drops in gold, silver, and palladium, while platinum remained relatively resilient. The market remains mainly influenced by supply chain concerns stemming from the Iran situation and the weakening of Fed rate cut expectations, which strengthen the US dollar. Global capital markets are under pressure due to liquidity risk concerns.

Regarding US economic data, inflation fears have reignited, the labor market remains generally stable, and market expectations for rate cuts have decreased.

In terms of Federal Reserve movements, the March FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Multiple uncertainties have made the Fed more cautious in deciding the interest rate path.

Geopolitically, there are no signs of easing in the Iran conflict. The fighting has affected Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, and the US Strait escort alliance plan has cooled down, with oil supply concerns remaining unresolved.

Overall, the tension caused by the Iran conflict has not eased oil supply tightness expectations. Coupled with weakening rate cut expectations driven by inflation fears and liquidity contraction expectations, precious metals face significant downward pressure.

Trading Strategy:

In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see; consider long positions once the market stabilizes. The reference ranges are: Shanghai Gold 2606 at 950-1100 RMB/gram, Shanghai Silver 2606 at 15,000-19,000 RMB/kilogram, Guangzhou Platinum 2606 at 450-520 RMB/gram, Guangzhou Palladium 2606 at 320-390 RMB/gram.

Uncertainty Risks:

Trade risks, geopolitical risks, and changes in European and American fiscal and monetary policies.

1. Market Review

Precious metals continued to decline this week, with gold, silver, and palladium falling sharply, while platinum was relatively resilient. The main influences remain supply chain concerns from the Iran situation and weakening Fed rate cut expectations, which strengthen the US dollar. Global capital markets are under pressure due to liquidity risk concerns.

2. Price Influence Factors Analysis

3. Macro-financial factors

Throughout the week, precious metals declined across the board, with gold and silver falling over 10%. Palladium briefly dropped below $1,500, while platinum remained relatively resilient. The unrest in the Middle East shows no signs of easing, with fighting affecting multiple energy infrastructure sites, heightening concerns over energy shortages and supporting a strong dollar trend that suppresses precious metals. Additionally, many central banks worldwide, worried about “oil-inflation,” kept interest rates unchanged, significantly dampening expectations for rate cuts this year, which continued to pressure precious metals. Moreover, global equity markets declined during the week, and concerns over liquidity risks also contributed to the downward trend of precious metals. Overall, the combination of a strong dollar, weakening rate cut expectations, and liquidity concerns drove this week’s decline in precious metals.

US economic data shows inflation fears reignited, the labor market remains generally stable, and market expectations for rate cuts have decreased. For the week ending March 14, initial jobless claims were 205,000, down from 213,000. The US February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, hitting a one-year high. The expected was 2.9%. On March 19, US January new home sales totaled an annualized 587,000 units, below the forecast of 720,000 and the previous 745,000. Regarding Fed policy, the March FOMC kept rates steady within the 3.5-3.75% range. However, Fed Chair Powell expressed caution, citing significant uncertainty about the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on US inflation and noting that current inflation remains high. He indicated that future policy adjustments should be based on economic data, leading to a substantial reduction in market expectations for rate cuts this year. The narrative of “rate cuts” has loosened, and with many central banks maintaining rates, downward pressure on precious metals persists.

Geopolitically, the Iran conflict shows no signs of easing. Fighting has affected Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, and the US Strait escort plan has cooled, with limited short-term hopes for reopening the strait. This week, Iran’s top security official, Larijani, was assassinated, prompting Iran to threaten retaliatory actions against US and allied targets, including oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, further heightening oil supply concerns and suppressing precious metals. The US plan for a Strait escort coalition has also been met with indifference, with limited prospects for short-term resolution.

Overall, the Iran conflict continues to keep oil supply tight expectations high, and combined with inflation fears and weakening rate cut expectations, the strong dollar remains a significant downward force on precious metals.

2. Position Analysis

As of March 20, 2026, SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 1,056.99 tons, an increase of 14.57 tons from the previous week. As of March 17, 2026, COMEX gold non-commercial long positions totaled 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts.

As of March 20, 2026, SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,248.91 tons, an increase of 211.27 tons from the previous week. As of March 17, 2026, COMEX silver non-commercial long positions were 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts.

As of March 17, 2026, NYMEX platinum non-commercial long positions were 16,898 contracts, up 2,208 contracts. Palladium non-commercial long positions were -185 contracts, down 29 contracts from the previous week.

Strategy

Recently, Iran claimed that non-hostile oil tankers could pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination on security issues, partially easing oil supply concerns. However, the US also announced plans to deploy ground troops into Iran to seize the oil export hub of Hark Island, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty. The Iran conflict still poses risks to oil supply, which could exert short-term pressure on precious metals. The recent sharp fluctuations in precious metals prices require ongoing attention, but the long-term support from US stagflation risks remains solid.

In terms of trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term; consider long positions once the market stabilizes. The reference ranges are: Shanghai Gold 2606 at 950-1100 RMB/gram, Shanghai Silver 2606 at 15,000-19,000 RMB/kilogram, Guangzhou Platinum 2606 at 450-520 RMB/gram, Guangzhou Palladium 2606 at 320-390 RMB/gram.

3. Related Charts

Author: Wang Yanqing

Futures trading consultation license: Z0014569

Phone: 023-81157292

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Editor: Dai Ming SF006