Will Earth Experience a Super El Niño Event? Trending Now—Truth or Rumor?

Source: Qinzhou Release

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have trended on the internet, attracting widespread public attention.

Media reports indicate that multiple global research institutions predict that a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting the global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures this year and next to record highs.

So, will a “super El Niño” really happen? Let’s hear what climate experts have to say—

El Niño may occur, but timing and strength are still unknown

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate variability phenomenon characterized by coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillations in the tropical Pacific, with a cycle of 3-7 years. It is typically represented by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific—specifically, the deviation from the climate average. If the 3-month moving average SST remains above 0.5°C for five consecutive months, it is considered a warm phase, called El Niño; if it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it is a cold phase, called La Niña; if the SST fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the National Climate Center analyzes that La Niña is nearing its end, and a neutral state is expected to follow. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is likely to continue rising, and by late spring, it may enter an El Niño phase.

Regarding this, Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explains that historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño in the same year. Different international models predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with the earliest possible in April and the latest in late summer or early fall. The predicted timing varies significantly among models—for example, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April, Australia forecasts May, Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June, and U.S. experts’ voting suggests July to September.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of an El Niño developing in the central-eastern Pacific in the second half of this year, but it is still too early to accurately predict the exact timing and overall strength. Currently, predictions from various international climate models show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Approach forecast information rationally; there’s no need to panic in advance

Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, reminds that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the specific magnitude of warming and the manifestation of extreme weather depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of El Niño, requiring further monitoring and assessment. It is too early to definitively say that a “super El Niño” will cause the hottest year.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. As a result, information in the weather and climate field tends to attract high attention, and discussions about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively on social media. Chen Lijuan points out that some of this information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. The public should view forecast information rationally—climate predictions have inherent uncertainties, especially regarding the exact timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require dynamic monitoring and prediction.

She recommends that the public focus on authoritative sources that provide real-time updates, rather than single-point extreme statements. “You can follow official channels such as the National Climate Center, the China Meteorological Administration’s website and official new media platforms, and regularly check authoritative reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations like the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish global climate assessment reports periodically, which can serve as references.”

Regardless of whether El Niño occurs, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has become a new normal of global climate change. Experts from the National Climate Center emphasize: it is essential to stay alert to meteorological warnings in advance and prepare scientifically—farmers should plan agricultural activities reasonably, and city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.