US Fertilizer Supplies in Crisis Due to Middle East Conflict, British Media Discovers: China Had Built Up Reserves Early

[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] The war initiated by the United States has not only triggered a surge in oil prices but also caused the global fertilizer supply chain to collapse. Reuters UK reported on March 13 that the US typically does not stockpile large amounts of fertilizer, making it difficult to resolve supply disruptions quickly. In contrast, China has established strategic reserves and announced that it will release fertilizer from national commercial reserves before the spring planting season.

According to the Fertilizer Institute, the US sometimes needs to import about half of its urea fertilizer, and this year’s supply available for farmers’ spring planting is about 25% short of previous years. Analysts warn that if fertilizer originally destined for the US is diverted to regions willing to pay higher prices, the situation could become even more tense.

StoneX analyst Josh Linville pointed out that at the port of New Orleans, where most overseas fertilizer enters the US and sets the price benchmark, current prices are about $119 per ton lower than the global market. This means ships originally headed to the US might redirect to higher-priced destinations, and some might even buy cargo from barges, load them onto ships, and export them elsewhere.

Virginia farmer John Boyd told NBC that his fertilizer supplier recently informed him that due to war and ongoing bombings, fertilizer transportation has stalled, and shipments may not arrive as expected.

Boyd said, “If I don’t fertilize, I can’t guarantee my crop yields,” and as supplies tighten further, prices are expected to continue rising.

NBC pointed out that the Middle East plays a significant role in fertilizer production because its abundant natural gas reserves are used to produce ammonia, a key raw material for urea and other nitrogen fertilizers. According to the USDA, Middle Eastern countries affected by the war—Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—account for about 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports.

Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed, with oil tankers waiting outside for passage, disrupting global nitrogen fertilizer supplies. It is reported that about one-third of global fertilizer raw materials and one-fifth of oil must pass through this strait.

As of March 10, ammonia prices in the Middle East increased by 92% year-on-year, and urea prices rose by 70%. US domestic ammonia prices increased by 41%, and urea prices by 21% compared to March last year.

Canadian farmer Dave Altrrog revealed that his broker told him that due to tight supplies, a local fertilizer dealer has even stopped quoting prices, which he finds “chilling.”

Altrrog bought urea last December, but if he were to buy now, he would pay an additional 44,000 CAD (about 220,000 RMB). He said some farmers in his area are either bearing this increase or simply cannot buy fertilizer.

US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack admitted on March 13 that “global events are clearly affecting our farmers,” with about 25% of farmers not yet having purchased spring fertilizer, risking higher prices. She claimed that the Trump administration is “very close to announcing some solutions aimed at reducing fertilizer prices,” but no details have been provided.

On March 13, Vilsack announced that the Trump administration would take measures to lower fertilizer prices. [Video screenshot]

Last December, the Trump administration announced a $12 billion aid package for US farmers to address trade market chaos and rising agricultural costs, but some farmers felt it was “far from enough” to offset the pressure.

On the 13th, the US Treasury Department said it would allow more fertilizer imports from Venezuela “to support America’s great farmers.”

Venezuela was once a major producer of nitrogen fertilizers like urea, but its output has sharply declined in recent years, similar to its oil industry downturn. Analysts say that given Venezuela’s current tense economic and political situation, increasing fertilizer production will be very difficult, requiring billions of dollars in investment, and cannot quickly solve the current US supply issues.

US Farm Bureau economist Faith Palum warned that if US farmers cannot obtain the necessary fertilizer in time, planting areas may decrease or be adjusted, leading to lower yields, which would impact national food security and the affordability of basic goods.

In stark contrast, China’s Agricultural Production Materials Circulation Association announced on March 13 that to ensure the needs for concentrated fertilizer use during spring planting, relevant government departments have decided to organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserves (nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers). They require related storage enterprises to sell these reserves based on local demand, effectively meeting agricultural needs, and promoting orderly market transactions and stable prices.

Reuters pointed out that most countries have not established strategic fertilizer reserves, and China’s fertilizer distribution system usually does not stockpile large amounts, making it very vulnerable to sudden supply disruptions. In contrast, China releases fertilizer reserves annually before spring planting, and if shortages or price fluctuations occur, the government typically initiates emergency releases in advance.

Before this early release, multiple Chinese industry organizations had issued warnings urging producers not to hoard fertilizer or raise prices. The UK media also noted that as the world’s largest urea producer, China strictly controls exports through quota restrictions and has not issued any export licenses this year.

The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association stated on the 2nd that the escalation of military conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran is expected to significantly impact the international urea market, but the current impact on the domestic urea market is relatively limited.

On the 11th, the association’s legal representative Gu Zongqin revealed that China expects to add 5.07 million tons of urea capacity in 2026, with total urea production reaching 76.5 million tons, ensuring sufficient supply during spring planting.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.